1691 Carlberg

Frewsburg, NY 14701

$34,500B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Built 1991 · Land · Active · 183 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,218/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$181
• Tax + insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $724/mo
• Annual: $8,687/yr
• Cap rate: 31.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 89.93%
• DSCR: 5.00
• 1% rule: 3.53%
• Cash to close: $9,660

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $34k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $724 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $34k).
• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($30k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $30k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $239 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#553 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing B; Watch: schools C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Falconer Central School District (town): math 43% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #423 of 590 in NY (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 315 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.