1691 Carlberg · Frewsburg, NY 14701

$34,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Land public records · 183 Days on market

Built 1991

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained 3 bedroom mobile home located in Brookside Estates. This home offers comfortable single story living with a functional layout. The primary suite includes its own full bathroom and roomy closet. The 4 season sunroom provides year-round comfort, making it an ideal spot for relaxing. Home also comes with a fully functional shed. This home is affordable and move in ready! Buyer will have to complete an application and be approved by park prior to sale. There is also an additional 200 sq feet of living space in the enclosed heated sunroom.

Key facts

• Full bathroom
• Primary suite
• Roomy closet

Tags

• SINGLE STORY LIVING
• PRIMARY SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM
• ROOMY CLOSET
• 4 SEASON SUNROOM
• FULLY FUNCTIONAL SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $34k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $724 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $34k).
• Recommended offer: $30k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#553 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing B; Watch: schools C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Falconer Central School District (town): math 43% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #423 of 590 in NY (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 315 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $239 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($30k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $4k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $30,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 89.93%
• DSCR: 5.00
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 90.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.20×
• Total profit: $40,534
• Equity at exit: $5,144

10-year hold

• IRR: 93.5%
• Equity multiple: 10.81×
• Total profit: $94,740
• Equity at exit: $2,983

Cash invested: $9,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14701

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Active inventory: 315
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,218 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$181
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$43 /mo · $518/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $724

Break-even live

Break-even rent $302

Max offer price $34,500

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $748	-5% $736	+0% $724	+5% $712	+10% $700
Rent	-10% $628	-5% $676	+0% $724	+5% $772	+10% $820
Rate	-1.0pp $741	-0.5pp $733	base $724	+0.5pp $715	+1.0pp $706

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,625
• Closing costs: $1,035
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $34,500 Active 183 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $34,500 Active 182 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $34,500 Active 181 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $34,500 Active 180 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $34,500 Active 179 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $34,500 Active 177 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $34,500 Active 176 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $36,500 Active 173 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $36,500 Active 172 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $36,500 Active 171 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $36,500 Active 166 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $36,500 Active 165 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $36,500 Active 164 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $36,500 Active 163 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    price $36,500 556-char remark

    Show marketing remark (556 chars)

    Well maintained 3 bedroom mobile home located in Brookside Estates. This home offers comfortable single story living with a functional layout. The primary suite includes its own full bathroom and roomy closet. The 4 season sunroom provides year-round comfort, making it an ideal spot for relaxing. Home also comes with a fully functional shed. This home is affordable and move in ready! Buyer will have to complete an application and be approved by park prior to sale. There is also an additional 200 sq feet of living space in the enclosed heated sunroom.

16. 2026-04-10
    price $37,500 556-char remark

    Show marketing remark (556 chars)

    Well maintained 3 bedroom mobile home located in Brookside Estates. This home offers comfortable single story living with a functional layout. The primary suite includes its own full bathroom and roomy closet. The 4 season sunroom provides year-round comfort, making it an ideal spot for relaxing. Home also comes with a fully functional shed. This home is affordable and move in ready! Buyer will have to complete an application and be approved by park prior to sale. There is also an additional 200 sq feet of living space in the enclosed heated sunroom.

17. 2025-12-18
    listed $39,000 Active 556-char remark

    Show marketing remark (556 chars)

    Well maintained 3 bedroom mobile home located in Brookside Estates. This home offers comfortable single story living with a functional layout. The primary suite includes its own full bathroom and roomy closet. The 4 season sunroom provides year-round comfort, making it an ideal spot for relaxing. Home also comes with a fully functional shed. This home is affordable and move in ready! Buyer will have to complete an application and be approved by park prior to sale. There is also an additional 200 sq feet of living space in the enclosed heated sunroom.

18. 2023-06-23
    soldstatus $33,000 Closed Sale or Rented 349-char remark

    Show marketing remark (349 chars)

    The perfect affordable option for someone who just wants to move right in. Fully furnished. Nice corner lot with enclosed year round sun room, covered carport plus patio area. Two sheds for extra storage. Central Air. Nice large open kitchen fully equipped. Washer and Dryer included. Plenty of parking. Extra gravel parking area plus nice driveway.

19. 2023-06-14
    status Pending Sale 349-char remark

    Show marketing remark (349 chars)

    The perfect affordable option for someone who just wants to move right in. Fully furnished. Nice corner lot with enclosed year round sun room, covered carport plus patio area. Two sheds for extra storage. Central Air. Nice large open kitchen fully equipped. Washer and Dryer included. Plenty of parking. Extra gravel parking area plus nice driveway.

20. 2023-06-01
    listed $34,900 Active 349-char remark

    Show marketing remark (349 chars)

    The perfect affordable option for someone who just wants to move right in. Fully furnished. Nice corner lot with enclosed year round sun room, covered carport plus patio area. Two sheds for extra storage. Central Air. Nice large open kitchen fully equipped. Washer and Dryer included. Plenty of parking. Extra gravel parking area plus nice driveway.

21. 2019-11-04
    soldstatus $23,500 Closed Sale or Rented
22. 2019-10-08
    price $23,500
23. 2019-08-29
    listed $27,000 Active
24. 2019-02-25
    soldstatus $17,000 Closed Sale or Rented
25. 2019-02-18
    status Pending Sale
26. 2019-02-04
    historical Continue to Show- Under Contract
27. 2019-01-11
    price $25,000
28. 2018-11-19
    listed $32,000 Active
29. 2003-10-08
    soldstatus $850,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,618
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,933
• − Property taxes: −$518
• − Insurance: −$172
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,169
• − Management: −$1,169
• − Depreciation: −$1,004
• Taxable income: $8,653
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,077
• After-tax cash flow: $6,610/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Falconer Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610920
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $44,363
• Composite: 40.96/100
• National rank: #3600
• State rank: #423 of 590 in NY

Livability — Frewsburg

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #553
• US rank: #9948

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing B Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chautauqua County · 38,461 people
• City population: 38,461
• Metro: Jamestown-Dunkirk-Fredonia, NY
• Population (ZIP): 38,461
• Household income: $49,685
• Rent vs Own: 42.8% rent · 57.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1838.0

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.93%
• Current HPI: 259.402
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Jamestown-Dunkirk-Fredonia, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-95.7% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $36,500 UNYREIS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $37,500 UNYREIS
• 2025-12-18 Listed $39,000 UNYREIS
• 2023-06-23 Sold (MLS) $33,000 UNYREIS
• 2023-06-14 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2023-06-01 Listed $34,900 UNYREIS
• 2019-11-04 Sold (MLS) $23,500 UNYREIS
• 2019-10-08 Price Changed $23,500 UNYREIS
• 2019-08-29 Listed $27,000 UNYREIS
• 2019-02-25 Sold (MLS) $17,000 UNYREIS
• 2019-02-18 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2019-02-04 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2019-01-11 Price Changed $25,000 UNYREIS
• 2018-11-19 Listed $32,000 UNYREIS
• 2003-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $850,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $95,710 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.