510 W 4th St

Willow Springs, MO 65793

$37,500B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 978 sqft · Built 1912 · Other · Active · 84 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $869/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$197
• Tax + insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$182
• Net cashflow: $462/mo
• Annual: $5,543/yr
• Cap rate: 21.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.79%
• DSCR: 3.35
• 1% rule: 2.32%
• Cash to close: $10,500

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $38k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $462 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($869 rent vs $38k).
• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $35k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $259 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#386 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Willow Springs R-IV (rural): math 34% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #140 of 324 in MO (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1912 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 53 units permitted in Howell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Howell County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 21.1% vs local median 3.7% in Willow Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1912 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.