510 W 4th St · Willow Springs, MO 65793

$37,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 978 sqft · Other public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1912 6,970 sqft lot $38/sqft · 63% below area ↓ 32% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fixer Upper Opportunity on Corner Lot in Willow SpringsUnlock the potential of this 2-bedroom, 1-bath home located in the heart of Willow Springs, Missouri. Offering approximately 978 square feet, this property is ideal for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to create a home tailored to their vision. Situated on a manageable 0.16-acre corner lot, the setting provides convenient access, added visibility, and a functional yard space with several shade trees that add character and comfort. Inside, the home features two separate living areas, offering flexibility for a traditional living room plus a den, office, or additional gathering space. This layout creates options for reconfiguration or enhancement, depending on your goals. The kitchen and bedrooms provide a solid footprint for renovation, allowing you to update and customize to your style. Outside, the property includes a storage shed for tools or equipment, along with a storm shelter for added peace of mind. The corner lot layout allows for easy parking and potential outdoor improvements. Whether you're looking for your next investment project or a place to build equity, this property presents a great opportunity in a convenient in-town location. Bring your ideas and transform this fixer upper into something special.

Key facts

• Storage shed
• Storm shelter
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• SEPARATE LIVING AREAS
• STORAGE SHED
• STORM SHELTER
• MANAGEABLE YARD SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $38k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $462 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($869 rent vs $38k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.1% vs local median 3.7% in Willow Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#386 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Willow Springs R-IV (rural): math 34% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #140 of 324 in MO (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 53 units permitted in Howell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $259 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Howell County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1912 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $35,250 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1912 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.79%
• DSCR: 3.35
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $101,846
• List price: $37,500
• Delta: -63.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 50.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.22×
• Total profit: $23,335
• Equity at exit: $5,591

10-year hold

• IRR: 56.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.54×
• Total profit: $58,169
• Equity at exit: $3,242

Cash invested: $10,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65793

• Home prices YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 80
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $869 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$197
• Tax from tax record: −$12 /mo · $145/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$182
• Net cashflow: $462

Break-even live

Break-even rent $284

Max offer price $37,500

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,375
• Closing costs: $1,125
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $37,500 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $37,500 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $37,500 Active 82 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $37,500 Active 81 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $37,500 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $37,500 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $37,500 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $37,500 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $37,500 Active 73 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $37,500 Active 72 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $37,500 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $37,500 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $37,500 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $37,500 Active 66 DOM
15. 2026-04-06
    status Active 1295-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1295 chars)

    Fixer Upper Opportunity on Corner Lot in Willow SpringsUnlock the potential of this 2-bedroom, 1-bath home located in the heart of Willow Springs, Missouri. Offering approximately 978 square feet, this property is ideal for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to create a home tailored to their vision. Situated on a manageable 0.16-acre corner lot, the setting provides convenient access, added visibility, and a functional yard space with several shade trees that add character and comfort. Inside, the home features two separate living areas, offering flexibility for a traditional living room plus a den, office, or additional gathering space. This layout creates options for reconfiguration or enhancement, depending on your goals. The kitchen and bedrooms provide a solid footprint for renovation, allowing you to update and customize to your style. Outside, the property includes a storage shed for tools or equipment, along with a storm shelter for added peace of mind. The corner lot layout allows for easy parking and potential outdoor improvements. Whether you're looking for your next investment project or a place to build equity, this property presents a great opportunity in a convenient in-town location. Bring your ideas and transform this fixer upper into something special.

16. 2026-03-31
    status Pending 1295-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1295 chars)

    Fixer Upper Opportunity on Corner Lot in Willow SpringsUnlock the potential of this 2-bedroom, 1-bath home located in the heart of Willow Springs, Missouri. Offering approximately 978 square feet, this property is ideal for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to create a home tailored to their vision. Situated on a manageable 0.16-acre corner lot, the setting provides convenient access, added visibility, and a functional yard space with several shade trees that add character and comfort. Inside, the home features two separate living areas, offering flexibility for a traditional living room plus a den, office, or additional gathering space. This layout creates options for reconfiguration or enhancement, depending on your goals. The kitchen and bedrooms provide a solid footprint for renovation, allowing you to update and customize to your style. Outside, the property includes a storage shed for tools or equipment, along with a storm shelter for added peace of mind. The corner lot layout allows for easy parking and potential outdoor improvements. Whether you're looking for your next investment project or a place to build equity, this property presents a great opportunity in a convenient in-town location. Bring your ideas and transform this fixer upper into something special.

17. 2026-03-19
    listed $37,500 Active 1295-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1295 chars)

    Fixer Upper Opportunity on Corner Lot in Willow SpringsUnlock the potential of this 2-bedroom, 1-bath home located in the heart of Willow Springs, Missouri. Offering approximately 978 square feet, this property is ideal for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to create a home tailored to their vision. Situated on a manageable 0.16-acre corner lot, the setting provides convenient access, added visibility, and a functional yard space with several shade trees that add character and comfort. Inside, the home features two separate living areas, offering flexibility for a traditional living room plus a den, office, or additional gathering space. This layout creates options for reconfiguration or enhancement, depending on your goals. The kitchen and bedrooms provide a solid footprint for renovation, allowing you to update and customize to your style. Outside, the property includes a storage shed for tools or equipment, along with a storm shelter for added peace of mind. The corner lot layout allows for easy parking and potential outdoor improvements. Whether you're looking for your next investment project or a place to build equity, this property presents a great opportunity in a convenient in-town location. Bring your ideas and transform this fixer upper into something special.

18. 2025-06-26
    listed $55,000 Active
19. 1997-03-25
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $145 · $12/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $364 · $30/mo
• Expected delta: +$219/yr (+$18/mo · 151.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,424
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,101
• − Property taxes: −$145
• − Insurance: −$188
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$834
• − Management: −$834
• − Depreciation: −$1,091
• Taxable income: $5,233
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,256
• After-tax cash flow: $4,287/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willow Springs R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2932070
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $32,334
• Composite: 34.4/100
• National rank: #5207
• State rank: #140 of 324 in MO

Livability — Willow Springs

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #386
• US rank: #16837

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willow Springs, MO
• City population: 5,679
• Population (ZIP): 5,679

Population outlook (Howell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,462 people
• By 2030: 37,240 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 34,495 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 31,450 · -18.2%
• By 2075: 23,660 · -38.5%
• By 2100: 16,373 · -57.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Howell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.8) · D 16.2% · R 83.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.0pp toward R · 2008: -30.8pp · 2024: -66.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.8 2020: R+64.2 2016: R+63.2 2012: R+43.8 2008: R+30.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.63%
• Current HPI: 220.7596
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-31.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Relisted — SOMO
• 2026-03-31 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-03-19 Listed $37,500 SOMO
• 2025-06-26 Listed $55,000 SOMO
• 1997-03-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $145 · +11.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.