15311 Crescent Brookfield Dr

Atascocita, TX 77396

$259,000D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,360 sqft · Built 2020 · SingleFamily · Active · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,265/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax + insurance: −$944
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $-513/mo
• Annual: $-6,154/yr
• Cap rate: 3.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.49%
• DSCR: 0.62
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $72,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $259k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-513 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (22.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (12.6% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $201k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Autumn Creek El (817 students, 63% FRL); Autumn Ridge Middle (1,039 students, 71% FRL); Humble H S (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 2,867 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 32% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 23% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Humble ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 346 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 32d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $41k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Landscaping — Overgrown grass needs trimming
• Minor: Exterior paint — Brick siding could benefit from a fresh coat