15311 Crescent Brookfield Dr · Atascocita, TX 77396

$259,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,360 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 2020 Fair condition 4,948 sqft lot $77/sqft · 28% below area Est $361k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Stylish 2-story home in Balmoral Park Lakes offering 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and a versatile floor plan designed for comfortable everyday living. The kitchen features rich dark wood cabinetry and flows seamlessly into the main living area — a great setup for both relaxed evenings and casual entertaining. Upstairs, a flexible loft space serves beautifully as a game room, home office, or secondary living area. All bedrooms are conveniently located on the second floor, anchored by a spacious primary suite with an oversized walk-in closet. The neutral finishes throughout make this home truly move-in ready and easy to make your own. Well-maintained, thoughtfully laid out, and set in a growing community with strong momentum - this home is competitively priced and ready for its next owner. Priced to move quickly. Schedule your showing today.

Key facts

• Huge pantry
• Near major highways
• Media family room

Tags

• HUGE PANTRY
• MEDIA FAMILY ROOM
• NEAR MAJOR HIGHWAYS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $259k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-487 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (22.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ridge Creek El (math 26% / reading 33%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 1,125 students, 74% FRL); Woodcreek Middle (math 46% / reading 49%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 1,145 students, 36% FRL); Humble H S (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 2,867 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 32% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.9%/yr); 419 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 68d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,596 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.06%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $360,512
• List price: $259,000
• Delta: -23.75%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15311 Crescent Brookfield Dr	0.00mi	3/2.5	3,360 (0%)	3mo	$239,900	$71	97
15422 Arrowhead Ridge Dr	0.22mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,242 (-4%)	4mo	$440,000	$136	72
15407 Arrowhead Ridge Dr	0.17mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,389 (+1%)	19mo	$399,900	$118	66
15427 Timber Plateau Dr	0.28mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,253 (-3%)	14mo	$445,000	$137	61
11310 Thompson Bend Dr	0.14mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,806 (+13%)	2mo	$399,000	$105	60
15426 Mirror Creek Dr	0.26mi	4/2.5 (+1)	3,048 (-9%)	19mo	$325,000	$107	51
12023 Allington Cove Ln	0.73mi	4/3.5 (+1)	3,471 (+3%)	6mo	$474,900	$137	46
15407 Trumball Manor Dr	0.64mi	4/3.0 (+1)	3,040 (-10%)	15mo	$550,000	$181	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-79,391
• Equity at exit: $38,618

10-year hold

• IRR: -78.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.84×
• Total profit: $-133,697
• Equity at exit: $22,394

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 7 active · 8 under contract
• Months of supply: 2.8 mo (36%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $380,000 ($135/sqft)
• Median days on market: 31 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -20.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77396

• Home prices YoY: -22.5%
• Rents YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 419
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,297 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax from tax record: −$836 /mo · $10,030/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $-487

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,914

Max offer price $200,596

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-341	-5% $-414	+0% $-487	+5% $-561	+10% $-634
Rent	-10% $-669	-5% $-578	+0% $-487	+5% $-397	+10% $-306
Rate	-1.0pp $-357	-0.5pp $-421	base $-487	+0.5pp $-554	+1.0pp $-623

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11307 Huntcrest Ln Humble, TX	4.0	3.5	2305	$2,520	$1.09	18d	1	0.19mi
11347 Needlerock Ct Unit 1310533P Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	3239	$9,388	$2.90	139d	1	0.30mi
10502 Lake of the Ozarks Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2370	$2,226	$0.94	11d	1	0.62mi
10638 Harbor Canyon Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2355	$2,181	$0.93	139d	1	0.62mi
12011 Summer Range Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2718	$2,660	$0.98	18d	1	0.63mi
15126 Sequoia Meadow Ct Humble, TX	4.0	3.5	2671	$2,595	$0.97	78d	1	0.85mi
12543 Highgrove Springs Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2512	$2,466	$0.98	54d	1	1.33mi
15319 Kinord Run Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2634	$2,581	$0.98	68d	1	1.35mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: House
• Construction: Living area approximately 2,338
• Exterior features: Lot size approximately 4,948 sq ft

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $259,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $259,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $259,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $259,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   pricedays on marketlisting id $259,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   pricedays on market $269,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $274,900 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $274,900 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   pricedays on marketlisting id $274,900 Active 1 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $259,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $259,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $259,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $259,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    pricedays on marketlisting id $259,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $289,000 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $289,000 Active 14 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $289,000 Active 12 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $289,000 Active 11 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $289,000 Active 10 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $289,000 Active 9 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $289,000 Active 8 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $289,000 Active 6 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $289,000 Active 5 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $289,000 Active 4 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $289,000 Active 3 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $289,000 Active 2 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    pricedays on marketlisting id $289,000 Active 1 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $259,000 Active 17 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $259,000 Active 16 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $259,000 Active 15 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $259,000 Active 14 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $259,000 Active 13 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $259,000 Active 12 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $259,000 Active 11 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $259,000 Active 10 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $259,000 Active 9 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $259,000 Active 8 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $259,000 Active 7 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $259,000 Active 6 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    price $259,000 Active 4 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $259,999 Active 4 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $259,999 Active 3 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $259,999 Active 2 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    pricedays on marketlisting id $259,999 Active 1 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $299,900 Active 15 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $299,900 Active 13 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $299,900 Active 12 DOM
48. 2026-07-26
    days on market $299,900 Active 10 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $299,900 Active 8 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $299,900 Active 7 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $10,030 · $836/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,030 · $836/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,564
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$10,030
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,205
• − Management: −$2,205
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable loss: −$10,214
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,451
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,397/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $84,000–$151,200 screening

The home is in fair condition with some minor repairs and maintenance needed. Upgrades to landscaping and exterior painting would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Landscaping — Overgrown grass needs trimming
• Minor Exterior paint — Brick siding could benefit from a fresh coat

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and exterior painting — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Interior painting — Fresh paint can make the home feel new and attractive ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Autumn Creek El Middle Autumn Ridge Middle High Summer Creek H S F TX #798/1,632 Nat'l #8,052/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 5,571,493 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 61,735
• Household income: $78,169
• Rent vs Own: 33.1% rent · 66.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% Black 29% Two or more races 19% White 19% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 37% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.66%
• Current HPI: 243.7012
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: House
• Construction: Living area approximately 2,338
• Exterior features: Lot size approximately 4,948 sq ft

Price history

+18.3% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-08-06 Price Changed $259,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2026-08-02 Listed $259,999 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2026-07-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-07-16 Listed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2026-06-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-06-12 Sold (MLS) $240,000 Greater Lansing AoR
• 2026-06-12 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $239,900 Greater Lansing AoR
• 2026-05-14 Listed $239,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $257,500 HARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $262,500 HARMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $263,500 HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2020-05-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-04-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-02-21 Listed $218,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+42.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,030 · -2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.