15 Dune Way

Fire Island, NY 11770

$1,649,000D+

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,452 sqft · Built 1971 · Other · Active · 68 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $9,141/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,648
• Tax + insurance: −$1,786
• HOA: −$511
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,920
• Net cashflow: $-3,723/mo
• Annual: $-44,678/yr
• Cap rate: 3.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.48%
• DSCR: 0.62
• 1% rule: 0.55%
• Cash to close: $461,720

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $1.65M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-45k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $991k (39.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $914k (44.6% below list).
• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.55M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $914k (44.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $176k of equity ($11k loan paydown + $165k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#812 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, crime B+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Fire Island Union Free School District (suburban): math 75% / reading 90% proficiency, ranked #44 of 590 in NY (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $999k; list at $1.65M implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$283k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 0.7% in Fire Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?