15 Dune Way · Fire Island, NY 11770

$1,649,000

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,452 sqft · Other public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1971 5,663 sqft lot $1136/sqft · 8% above area Est $2162k · 24% under $511/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +7.2/10.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to “The Tree House” in Seaview – a unique coastal retreat elevated on stilts, offering beautiful bay views and an unbeatable location. This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home perfectly blends charm, comfort, and versatility, making it ideal for both relaxing getaways and entertaining. Step inside to find light-filled living spaces with an open flow, designed to take advantage of the water views and breezes. The elevated design creates a serene, treehouse-like atmosphere, offering both privacy and scenic outlooks. The property also includes a detached cottage with a half bath and pull-out sofa, providing endless possibilities—whether you envision a guest suite, private office, additional bedroom, or extra living area. This property provides 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a versatile cottage with half bath—an excellent opportunity to own a spacious, well-located home in Seaview.

Key facts

• Coastal retreat
• Detached cottage
• Bay views

Tags

• COASTAL RETREAT
• BAY VIEWS
• DETACHED COTTAGE
• LIGHT-FILLED LIVING SPACES
• OPEN FLOW

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $1.65M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-45k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $991k (39.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $914k (44.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $914k (44.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 0.7% in Fire Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#812 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, crime B+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Fire Island Union Free School District (suburban): math 75% / reading 90% proficiency, ranked #44 of 590 in NY (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $176k of equity ($11k loan paydown + $165k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$283k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($1.55M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $999k; list at $1.65M implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $460/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $914,101 (44.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.48%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 15.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,162,210
• List price: $1,649,000
• Delta: -23.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $660,818
• Equity at exit: $1,485,550

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.62×
• Total profit: $2,132,202
• Equity at exit: $3,203,644

Cash invested: $461,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11770

• Home prices YoY: 13.7%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 15.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $9,141 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,648
• Tax from tax record: −$639 /mo · $7,663/yr
• Insurance: −$687
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$460 /mo · $5,525/yr
• HOA: −$511
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,920
• Net cashflow: $-3,723

Break-even live

Break-even rent $13,854

Max offer price $991,284

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $412,250
• Closing costs: $49,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
43 Crescent Ave Ocean Beach, NY	4.0	2.5	1400	$8,500	$6.07	15d	1	0.18mi
437 Dehnhoff Walk Ocean Beach, NY	4.0	2.0	1496	$6,000	$4.01	43d	1	0.31mi
55 Ocean Rd Ocean Beach, NY	5.0	3.0	1577	$7,500	$4.76	18d	1	0.42mi
112 Ocean Rd Ocean Beach, NY	4.0	2.0	1560	$13,000	$8.33	43d	1	0.44mi
290 Wilmot Rd Ocean Beach, NY	5.0	2.0	1800	$12,500	$6.94	16d	1	0.47mi
294 Wilmot Rd Ocean Beach, NY	5.0	2.5	1852	$12,500	$6.75	18d	1	0.47mi
150 Clipper Roadway Ocean Beach, NY	6.0	2.5	1674	$8,000	$4.78	43d	1	0.59mi
54 Thompson Ave Ocean Beach, NY	5.0	2.0	1680	$8,500	$5.06	43d	1	0.64mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $511 · $6,132/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,649,000 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,649,000 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,649,000 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,649,000 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,649,000 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,649,000 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,649,000 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,649,000 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,649,000 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,649,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,649,000 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,649,000 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,649,000 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,649,000 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-04-11
    listed $1,649,000 Active 921-char remark

    Show marketing remark (921 chars)

    Welcome to “The Tree House” in Seaview – a unique coastal retreat elevated on stilts, offering beautiful bay views and an unbeatable location. This 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home perfectly blends charm, comfort, and versatility, making it ideal for both relaxing getaways and entertaining. Step inside to find light-filled living spaces with an open flow, designed to take advantage of the water views and breezes. The elevated design creates a serene, treehouse-like atmosphere, offering both privacy and scenic outlooks. The property also includes a detached cottage with a half bath and pull-out sofa, providing endless possibilities—whether you envision a guest suite, private office, additional bedroom, or extra living area. This property provides 4 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a versatile cottage with half bath—an excellent opportunity to own a spacious, well-located home in Seaview.

16. 2026-03-11
    historical
17. 2025-08-25
    listed $1,649,000 Active
18. 2020-12-07
    soldstatus $999,000
19. 2017-11-01
    soldstatus $846,150
20. 2000-09-25
    soldstatus $280,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,663 · $639/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $17,765 · $1,480/mo
• Expected delta: +$10,103/yr (+$842/mo · 131.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $109,692
• − Mortgage interest: −$92,370
• − Property taxes: −$7,663
• − Insurance: −$13,770
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$8,775
• − Management: −$8,775
• − HOA: −$6,132
• − Depreciation: −$47,971
• Taxable loss: −$75,764
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$18,183
• After-tax cash flow: $-26,495/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fire Island Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3621540
• Math proficiency: 75% ▲ 25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 90% ▲ 40.00%
• Median HH income: $69,449
• Composite: 71.53/100
• National rank: #222
• State rank: #44 of 590 in NY

Livability — Fire Island

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #812
• US rank: #15735

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety B User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fire Island, NY
• City population: 124
• Population (ZIP): 124

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (52%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 48% Two or more races 27%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 15% Dominican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 56% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 69.28%
• Current HPI: 575.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+488.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listed $1,649,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-25 Listed $1,649,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $999,000 Public Records
• 2017-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $846,150 Public Records
• 2000-09-25 Sold (Public Records) $280,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2017): $7,663 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.