550 E Trails End Dr

Allyn, WA 98528

$189,900C-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 850 sqft · Built 1969 · Other · Pending · 135 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,676/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$182
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $146/mo
• Annual: $1,754/yr
• Cap rate: 7.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.30%
• DSCR: 1.15
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $53,172

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $146 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (11.7% below list).
• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#287 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• North Mason School District (rural): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #233 of 291 in WA (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 299 units permitted in Mason County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mason County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $57k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $136k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.1% in Allyn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.