550 E Trails End Dr · Allyn, WA 98528

$189,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 850 sqft · Other public records · 135 Days on market

Built 1969 0.33 ac lot $223/sqft · 44% below area Est $341k · 44% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming getaway cabin in the sleepy Trails End community of Belfair. Under an hour from Gig Harbor or Tacoma, this A-frame is tucked into the woods with a peek-a-boo view of the lake. Rustic and full of character, it could use a little love—but priced accordingly and ready for your vision. Plenty of parking and a big front deck set the stage for gatherings, morning coffee, or simply soaking in the quiet, park-like setting. Trails End Lake is a public lake with a boat launch just a few blocks away. No motorized boats allowed—just birdsong, fresh air, and the peaceful sounds of nature. A special spot with tons of potential. Come see!

Key facts

• Boat launch
• Public lake
• Peek-a-boo view

Tags

• PEEK-A-BOO VIEW
• BIG FRONT DECK
• PUBLIC LAKE
• BOAT LAUNCH
• QUIET PARK-LIKE SETTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $146 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.1% in Allyn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#287 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• North Mason School District (rural): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #233 of 291 in WA (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 299 units permitted in Mason County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mason County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 26y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $57k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $136k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $167,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.30%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $341,298
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -44.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-21,522
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-6,988
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98528

• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,676 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,236/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $146

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,491

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-01
   status Active
3. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-27
   price $189,900
5. 2026-04-02
   price $199,900
6. 2026-04-02
   status Active
7. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
8. 2026-03-09
   price $209,900
9. 2026-02-09
   price $224,900
10. 2026-01-15
    price $234,900
11. 2025-12-19
    listed $246,900 Active
12. 2006-04-07
    soldstatus $135,500
13. 2006-01-23
    listed $141,900
14. 2000-06-20
    soldstatus $39,000
15. 2000-05-03
    listed $42,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,236 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,861 · $155/mo
• Expected delta: +$625/yr (+$52/mo · 50.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥87°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,113
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$1,236
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,609
• − Management: −$1,609
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$1,452
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$349
• After-tax cash flow: $2,102/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Mason School District
• NCES district ID: 5305790
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,458
• Composite: 34.67/100
• National rank: #10069
• State rank: #233 of 291 in WA

Livability — Allyn

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #287
• US rank: #10039

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,398

Population outlook (Mason County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,005 people
• By 2030: 58,567 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 54,735 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 51,470 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 46,276 · -22.9%
• By 2100: 39,883 · -33.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Italian 6% Slovak 5%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mason

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.2% · R 49.7% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.7pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: R+3.9 2016: R+6.0 2012: D+6.9 2008: D+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -207.97%
• Current HPI: 205.0499
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+352.1% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $189,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $199,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $209,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $224,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $234,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-19 Listed $246,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-07 Sold (MLS) $135,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-01-23 Listed $141,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-06-20 Sold (MLS) $39,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-05-03 Listed $42,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,236 · -13.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.