8405 Cedarview Cir

Savage, MN 55378

$309,900D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,822 sqft · Built 2005 · Townhouse · Pending · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,388/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,625
• Tax + insurance: −$404
• HOA: −$340
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$501
• Net cashflow: $-482/mo
• Annual: $-5,790/yr
• Cap rate: 4.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.67%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $86,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $310k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-482 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (27.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (23.0% below list).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $225k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#118 in MN, #2,692 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Prior Lake-Savage Area Schools (suburban): math 56% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #32 of 301 in MN (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Redtail Ridge Elementary School (math 65% / reading 62%, grade B, #162 of 857 statewide, top 19%, 597 students, 14% FRL); Prior Lake-Savage Middle School (math 44% / reading 52%, grade C-, #90 of 258 statewide, top 35%, 1,987 students, 20% FRL); Prior Lake High School (math 52% / reading 66%, grade C+, #53 of 471 statewide, top 11%, 2,857 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 87 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 699 units permitted in Scott County in 2024 (84 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Scott County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $255k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.8% in Savage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.