8405 Cedarview Cir · Savage, MN 55378

$309,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,822 sqft · Townhouse public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2005 1,742 sqft lot $170/sqft · 19% below area Est $384k · 19% under $340/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious floor plan with high ceilings. Office loft over looking great room with fire place. Large kitchen island. Master suite with large soaking tub and walk in closet. Upper level laundry . Beautiful neighborhood next to schools and parks. Outside there is amble parking, mature trees and beautiful landscaping. 3 bedrooms and 3 fulls baths

Key facts

• New carpet
• Private bath
• New paint

Tags

• FOCAL POINT GAS FIREPLACE
• CENTER ISLAND KITCHEN
• NEW CARPET
• NEW PAINT
• PRIVATE BATH
• WALK IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA managed by First Service Residential Minnesota; Monthly association fee of $340; HOA covers hazard insurance, lawn care, grounds maintenance, professional management and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces; Garage approximately 24 x 20 with 8' door height and 16' door width; Guest parking
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Electric with circuit breakers; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential attached property; Two levels; Poured concrete foundation
• Construction: Frame construction; Asphalt roof; Foundation area approximately 1,140 (details provided)
• Exterior features: Deck; Stone, metal and vinyl exterior accents; Private road frontage with association/private maintenance

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen center island; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (one on lower level, two on upper/main levels as noted)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 three-quarter bathroom; Primary suite includes a private full bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished full basement with daylight/lookout windows; Fireplace (gas) in living room; Ceiling fans; Breakfast bar and informal kitchen/dining area; Primary bedroom with private full bath and walk-in closet; In-ground sprinkler (lawn irrigation)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room (upper level); Washer and dryer included; Water softener (rented)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-482 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (27.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (23.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.8% in Savage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#118 in MN, #2,692 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Prior Lake-Savage Area Schools (suburban): math 56% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #32 of 301 in MN (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Redtail Ridge Elementary School (math 65% / reading 62%, grade B, #162 of 857 statewide, top 19%, 597 students, 14% FRL); Prior Lake-Savage Middle School (math 44% / reading 52%, grade C-, #90 of 258 statewide, top 35%, 1,987 students, 20% FRL); Prior Lake High School (math 52% / reading 66%, grade C+, #53 of 471 statewide, top 11%, 2,857 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 87 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 699 units permitted in Scott County in 2024 (84 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Scott County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $255k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $224,667 (27.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.67%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $383,869
• List price: $309,900
• Delta: -19.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.10×
• Total profit: $-77,903
• Equity at exit: $46,207

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-94,637
• Equity at exit: $26,794

Cash invested: $86,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55378

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,388 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,625
• Tax from tax record: −$274 /mo · $3,294/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$340
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$501
• Net cashflow: $-482

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,998

Max offer price $224,667

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-307	-5% $-395	+0% $-482	+5% $-570	+10% $-658
Rent	-10% $-671	-5% $-577	+0% $-482	+5% $-388	+10% $-294
Rate	-1.0pp $-326	-0.5pp $-404	base $-482	+0.5pp $-563	+1.0pp $-644

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,475
• Closing costs: $9,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8315 Cedarview Cir Savage, MN	3.0	3.0	1872	$2,450	$1.31	45d	1	0.05mi
14975 Pinto Ln Savage, MN	3.0	2.5	1389	$1,875	$1.35	46d	1	0.65mi
7010 S Park Dr Savage, MN	3.0	3.0	2300	$2,589	$1.13	4d	1	0.96mi
15311 Louisiana Ave Savage, MN	3.0	3.0	1768	$2,649	$1.50	16d	1	1.05mi
5868 Royalton Rd NE Prior Lake, MN	3.0	3.0	1778	$2,600	$1.46	45d	1	1.34mi
14125 Louisiana Ave S Savage, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1026	$2,516	$2.45	0d	26	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $340 · $4,080/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-04
   status $309,900 Pending 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $309,900 Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $309,900 Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $309,900 Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission 18 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $309,900 Contingent - Subject to Statutory Rescission 17 DOM
6. 2026-05-14
   listed $309,900 Active 523-char remark
7. 2021-06-23
   soldstatus $255,000
8. 2016-02-24
   soldstatus $199,100
9. 2015-10-23
   soldstatus $200,000
10. 2015-09-02
    status Pending 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    Spacious floor plan with high ceilings. Office loft over looking great room with fire place. Large kitchen island. Master suite with large soaking tub and walk in closet. Upper level laundry . Beautiful neighborhood next to schools and parks. Outside there is amble parking, mature trees and beautiful landscaping. 3 bedrooms and 3 fulls baths

11. 2015-09-01
    soldstatus $200,000 Sold 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    Spacious floor plan with high ceilings. Office loft over looking great room with fire place. Large kitchen island. Master suite with large soaking tub and walk in closet. Upper level laundry . Beautiful neighborhood next to schools and parks. Outside there is amble parking, mature trees and beautiful landscaping. 3 bedrooms and 3 fulls baths

12. 2015-08-14
    historical Contingent - Inspection 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    Spacious floor plan with high ceilings. Office loft over looking great room with fire place. Large kitchen island. Master suite with large soaking tub and walk in closet. Upper level laundry . Beautiful neighborhood next to schools and parks. Outside there is amble parking, mature trees and beautiful landscaping. 3 bedrooms and 3 fulls baths

13. 2015-07-31
    listed $210,000 Active 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    Spacious floor plan with high ceilings. Office loft over looking great room with fire place. Large kitchen island. Master suite with large soaking tub and walk in closet. Upper level laundry . Beautiful neighborhood next to schools and parks. Outside there is amble parking, mature trees and beautiful landscaping. 3 bedrooms and 3 fulls baths

14. 2010-01-31
    historical
15. 2009-10-05
    listed $235,000
16. 2006-07-17
    soldstatus $216,745

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,294 · $274/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,382 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: +$88/yr (+$7/mo · 2.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,653
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,359
• − Property taxes: −$3,294
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,292
• − Management: −$2,292
• − HOA: −$4,080
• − Depreciation: −$9,015
• Taxable loss: −$11,230
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,695
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,095/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prior Lake-Savage Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2730060
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $96,810
• Composite: 53.47/100
• National rank: #1457
• State rank: #32 of 301 in MN

Livability — Savage

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #118
• US rank: #2692

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Savage, MN
• County: Scott County · 116,975 people
• City population: 32,162
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 32,162
• Household income: $124,871
• Rent vs Own: 14.5% rent · 85.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 511.0

Population outlook (Scott County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 165,899 people
• By 2030: 177,290 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 199,019 · +20.0%
• By 2050: 216,883 · +30.7%
• By 2075: 256,099 · +54.4%
• By 2100: 276,434 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 4% Vietnamese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Scott

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.5) · D 44.8% · R 53.3% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.7pp toward D · 2008: -11.2pp · 2024: -8.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.5 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+15.4 2012: R+14.8 2008: R+11.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.05%
• Current HPI: 215.338
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.18%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+43.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-26 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Listed $309,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $255,000 Public Records
• 2016-02-24 Sold (Public Records) $199,100 Public Records
• 2015-10-23 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 2015-09-02 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-01 Sold (MLS) $200,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-14 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-31 Listed $210,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-01-31 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-10-05 Listed $235,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $216,745 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,294 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.