2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,568 sqft ·
Built 1995
· Manufactured
· Active
· 97 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,430/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$661
Tax + insurance
−$89
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$300
Net cashflow
$379/mo
Annual
$4,554/yr
Cap rate
9.91%
Cash-on-cash
12.91%
DSCR
1.57
1% rule
1.13%
Cash to close
$35,280
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $126k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $379 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $126k).
It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($115k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $115k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $871 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 59/100 on livability (#296 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living B; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
Lakeside School District (urban): math 47% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #28 of 238 in AR (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Lakeside Intermediate School (math 65% / reading 44%, grade C, #60 of 454 statewide, top 15%, 720 students, 49% FRL); Lakeside Middle School (math 52% / reading 40%, grade D+, #53 of 201 statewide, top 28%, 553 students, 52% FRL); Lakeside High School (math 31% / reading 49%, grade F, #46 of 292 statewide, top 15%, 1,112 students, 42% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 981 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
Current owner paid $82k; list at $126k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.4% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 1.0% in Lake Hamilton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-RM2E5E1T63J1RK
· Data 16 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29