225 Century Cir · Lake Hamilton, AR 71913

$126,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 97 Days on market

Built 1995 Est $119k · 6% over ↓ 41% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• ARV discount +4.9/15.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Built 1995
• Listed 96 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1995; Located in the Sourhwood Estate subdivision
• Construction: Single-family property; Living area approximately 1568
• Exterior features: Deck

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet
• Interior features: Carpet; Deck

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $126k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $379 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $126k).
• Recommended offer: $115k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 1.0% in Lake Hamilton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#296 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living B; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lakeside School District (urban): math 47% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #28 of 238 in AR (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lakeside Intermediate School (math 65% / reading 44%, grade C, #60 of 454 statewide, top 15%, 720 students, 49% FRL); Lakeside Middle School (math 52% / reading 40%, grade D+, #53 of 201 statewide, top 28%, 553 students, 52% FRL); Lakeside High School (math 31% / reading 49%, grade F, #46 of 292 statewide, top 15%, 1,112 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 981 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $871 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.4% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($115k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $126k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,660 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.91%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $119,168
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
132 Amy Dr Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,656 (+6%)	9mo	$126,000	$76	73
101 Valiant St	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,352 (-14%)	18mo	$85,000	$63	55
105 Century Cir	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,760 (+12%)	21mo	$142,000	$81	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $8,801
• Equity at exit: $18,787

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $61,043
• Equity at exit: $10,894

Cash invested: $35,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71913

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 981
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,430 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$661
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $439/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $379

Break-even live

Break-even rent $949

Max offer price $126,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $451	-5% $415	+0% $379	+5% $344	+10% $308
Rent	-10% $267	-5% $323	+0% $379	+5% $436	+10% $492
Rate	-1.0pp $443	-0.5pp $412	base $379	+0.5pp $347	+1.0pp $314

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,500
• Closing costs: $3,780
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
220 Massey Rd Hot Springs National Park, AR	3.0	2.0	2124	$2,200	$1.04	45d	1	0.22mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $126,000 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $126,000 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $126,000 Active 94 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $126,000 Active 93 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $126,000 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $126,000 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $126,000 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $126,000 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $126,000 Active 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $126,000 Active 85 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $126,000 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $126,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $126,000 Active 80 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $126,000 Active 79 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $126,000 Active 78 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $126,000 Active 77 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $126,000 Active 76 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $126,000 Active 75 DOM
19. 2026-03-16
    listed $126,000 Active
20. 2009-06-30
    soldstatus $82,000
21. 1995-05-31
    soldstatus $73,000
22. 1994-08-24
    soldstatus $212,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $439 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $806 · $67/mo
• Expected delta: +$367/yr (+$31/mo · 83.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,154
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,058
• − Property taxes: −$439
• − Insurance: −$630
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,372
• − Management: −$1,372
• − Depreciation: −$3,665
• Taxable income: $2,617
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$628
• After-tax cash flow: $3,926/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakeside School District
• NCES district ID: 0508670
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $52,849
• Composite: 39.76/100
• National rank: #3884
• State rank: #28 of 238 in AR

Livability — Lake Hamilton

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #296
• US rank: #20336

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment C- Housing D- Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Hamilton, AR
• County: Garland County · 76,414 people
• City population: 76,414
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• Population (ZIP): 47,477
• Household income: $56,010
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1442.0

Population outlook (Garland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 100,343 people
• By 2030: 101,880 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 104,804 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 107,292 · +6.9%
• By 2075: 113,182 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 112,247 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Garland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.2) · D 30.8% · R 67.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -36.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.2 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+29.9 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -137.67%
• Current HPI: 268.5228
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.43%
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-40.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Listed $126,000 FSBO.com
• 2009-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records
• 1995-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records
• 1994-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $212,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+22.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $439 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.