200-220 Quail Run Rd

Martindale, TX 78655

$850,000F

None bd · None ba · 2,744 sqft · Built 1975 · Townhouse · Active · 72 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $774/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,457
• Tax + insurance: −$1,168
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$162
• Net cashflow: $-5,014/mo
• Annual: $-60,168/yr
• Cap rate: -0.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -23.13%
• DSCR: -0.03
• 1% rule: 0.09%
• Cash to close: $238,000

Investor read

• This is a townhouse listed at $850k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5k ($-60k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $27k (96.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $77k (90.9% below list).
• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($799k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $27k (96.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#397 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• San Marcos CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #731 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 97% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?