200-220 Quail Run Rd · Martindale, TX 78655

$850,000

None bd · None ba · 2,744 sqft · Townhouse public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1975 1.50 ac lot ↓ 32% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

12 UNITS FOR SALE IN MARTINDALE TEXAS. WALKING DISTANCE TO THE SAN MARCOS RIVER. 8 2 BEDROOM 1 BATH UNITS AND 4 1 BEDROOM 1 BATH UNITS. EASY ACCESS TO HWY 80 AND THE 110 FARM TO MARKET BYPASS THAT TAKES YOU TO IH 35 AND HWY 123. VIRTUAL TOUR AVAILABLE.

Key facts

• Built 1975
• Listed 72 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a townhouse listed at $850k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5k ($-60k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $27k (96.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $77k (90.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $27k (96.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#397 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• San Marcos CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #731 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($799k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $26,723 (96.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 97% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.09% ✗
• Cap rate: -0.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -23.13%
• DSCR: -0.03
• GRM: 91.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.99% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-304,215
• Equity at exit: $289,514

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: -1.18×
• Total profit: $-517,837
• Equity at exit: $384,227

Cash invested: $238,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78655

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 48
• Price-to-rent: 91.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $774 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,457
• Tax from tax record: −$387 /mo · $4,645/yr
• Insurance: −$354
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$162
• Net cashflow: $-5,014

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,121

Max offer price $26,723

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $212,500
• Closing costs: $25,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Quail Run Rd Unit 1 Martindale, TX	1.0	1.0	2913	$750	$0.26	14d	1	0.04mi
104 Plains Dr Martindale, TX	1.0	1.0	1932	$950	$0.49	43d	1	0.56mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $850,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $850,000 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $850,000 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $850,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $850,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $850,000 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $850,000 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $850,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $850,000 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $850,000 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $850,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $850,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $850,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-04-07
    listed $850,000 Active 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    12 UNITS FOR SALE IN MARTINDALE TEXAS. WALKING DISTANCE TO THE SAN MARCOS RIVER. 8 2 BEDROOM 1 BATH UNITS AND 4 1 BEDROOM 1 BATH UNITS. EASY ACCESS TO HWY 80 AND THE 110 FARM TO MARKET BYPASS THAT TAKES YOU TO IH 35 AND HWY 123. VIRTUAL TOUR AVAILABLE.

15. 2025-12-31
    historical
16. 2025-10-27
    listed $1,250,000 Active
17. 1990-10-25
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,645 · $387/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $15,555 · $1,296/mo
• Expected delta: +$10,910/yr (+$909/mo · 234.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,284
• − Mortgage interest: −$47,613
• − Property taxes: −$4,645
• − Insurance: −$9,368
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$743
• − Management: −$743
• − Depreciation: −$24,727
• Taxable loss: −$78,555
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$18,853
• After-tax cash flow: $-41,315/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Marcos CISD
• NCES district ID: 4838970
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $34,538
• Composite: 20.11/100
• National rank: #8644
• State rank: #731 of 826 in TX

Livability — Martindale

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #397
• US rank: #8261

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Martindale, TX
• Population (ZIP): 3,687

Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,557 people
• By 2030: 49,673 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 55,827 · +19.9%
• By 2050: 61,832 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 77,212 · +65.8%
• By 2100: 89,225 · +91.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% Two or more races 40% White 33% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 32% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

• 2024 margin: R (+14.4) · D 42.2% · R 56.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.4 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+15.8 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.99%
• Current HPI: 221.4376
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-32.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Listed $850,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2025-10-27 Listed $1,250,000 CTXMLS
• 1990-10-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,645 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.