551 3rd St

Lincoln, IL 62656

$74,990C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1951 · Other · Pending · 101 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $891/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$174
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$187
• Net cashflow: $136/mo
• Annual: $1,633/yr
• Cap rate: 8.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.78%
• DSCR: 1.35
• 1% rule: 1.19%
• Cash to close: $20,997

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $75k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $136 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($891 rent vs $75k).
• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $68k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#509 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Lincoln Chsd 404 (town): math 21% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #367 of 620 in IL (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Comm High School (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #304 of 693 statewide, top 44%, 786 students, 0% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10 units permitted in Logan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Logan County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $75k implies a 178% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.1% in Lincoln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.