551 3rd St · Lincoln, IL 62656

$74,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Other public records · 101 Days on market

Built 1951 7,840 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A few updates will make this cute bungalow shine and beautiful again. Centrally located with easy access to all local amenities, this home offers a spacious living room, an eat-in kitchen, three nice sized bedrooms, one full bath and a laundry room. Other nice features include an enclosed front porch, a large fenced back yard and storage shed. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property.

Key facts

• Storage shed
• Central air system
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• FENCED BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED
• CENTRAL AIR SYSTEM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking (no garage)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Built in 1951; One-story main living level with additional/upper and lower levels
• Construction: 1951 construction
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Lot dimensions approximately 199 x 40

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level (~10 x 14)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (main level): Bedroom 1 ~12 x 11, Bedroom 2 ~11 x 12, Bedroom 3 ~11 x 10 — all have egress windows
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank throughout main living areas and bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Window unit(s) for heating/cooling
• Interior features: No basement; No fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $136 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($891 rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.1% in Lincoln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#509 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Lincoln Chsd 404 (town): math 21% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #367 of 620 in IL (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Comm High School (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #304 of 693 statewide, top 44%, 786 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 77 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10 units permitted in Logan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Logan County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $27k; list at $75k implies a 178% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $68,240 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.78%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-3,441
• Equity at exit: $11,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $8,341
• Equity at exit: $6,484

Cash invested: $20,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62656

• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $891 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,716/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$187
• Net cashflow: $136

Break-even live

Break-even rent $718

Max offer price $74,990

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,748
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1455 Castle Manor Dr Lincoln, IL	1.0–2.0	1.0	835	$845	$1.01	43d	1	1.14mi
1103 N State St Lincoln, IL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	996	$930	$0.93	20d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $74,990 Pending 101 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $74,990 Active 101 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $74,990 Active 100 DOM
4. 2026-05-19
   price $74,990
5. 2026-04-09
   price $89,900
6. 2026-03-17
   price $100,000
7. 2026-02-19
   listed $105,000 Active
8. 2023-10-17
   historical
9. 2019-10-29
   soldstatus $27,000 386-char remark

   Show marketing remark (386 chars)

   A few updates will make this cute bungalow shine and beautiful again. Centrally located with easy access to all local amenities, this home offers a spacious living room, an eat-in kitchen, three nice sized bedrooms, one full bath and a laundry room. Other nice features include an enclosed front porch, a large fenced back yard and storage shed. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property.

10. 2019-10-29
    soldstatus $27,000

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    A few updates will make this cute bungalow shine and beautiful again. Centrally located with easy access to all local amenities, this home offers a spacious living room, an eat-in kitchen, three nice sized bedrooms, one full bath and a laundry room. Other nice features include an enclosed front porch, a large fenced back yard and storage shed. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property.

11. 2019-09-15
    listed $27,000
12. 2019-07-31
    listed $27,000 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    A few updates will make this cute bungalow shine and beautiful again. Centrally located with easy access to all local amenities, this home offers a spacious living room, an eat-in kitchen, three nice sized bedrooms, one full bath and a laundry room. Other nice features include an enclosed front porch, a large fenced back yard and storage shed. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath property.

13. 2007-06-19
    soldstatus $65,000
14. 2007-06-19
    soldstatus $65,000
15. 2006-04-24
    listed $68,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,716 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,716 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,687
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,716
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$855
• − Management: −$855
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $504
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$121
• After-tax cash flow: $1,512/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln Chsd 404
• NCES district ID: 1723050
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $41,489
• Composite: 20.4/100
• National rank: #8590
• State rank: #367 of 620 in IL

Livability — Lincoln

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #509
• US rank: #10514

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lincoln, IL
• City population: 18,364
• Population (ZIP): 18,364

Population outlook (Logan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,066 people
• By 2030: 27,370 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 26,078 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 24,908 · -11.3%
• By 2075: 22,504 · -19.8%
• By 2100: 19,226 · -31.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 9% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Logan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.5) · D 28.2% · R 69.8% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -16.9pp · 2024: -41.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.5 2020: R+39.8 2016: R+40.1 2012: R+32.1 2008: R+16.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -181.45%
• Current HPI: 133.9499
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+10.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $74,990 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $89,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $100,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-19 Listed $105,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-17 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-29 Sold (MLS) $27,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-29 Sold (MLS) $27,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-15 Listed $27,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-31 Listed $27,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2007-06-19 Sold (MLS) $65,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-04-24 Listed $68,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,716 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.