331 Saipan Pl

San Antonio, TX 78221

$144,999D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 993 sqft · Built 1956 · SingleFamily · Pending · 72 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,219/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax + insurance: −$367
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $-165/mo
• Annual: $-1,980/yr
• Cap rate: 4.93%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.88%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $40,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-165 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $116k (20.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (15.9% below list).
• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $116k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Harlandale ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #748 of 826 in TX (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Bellaire El (math 19% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 497 students, 91% FRL); Terrell Wells Middle (math 24% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,222 of 1,662 statewide, top 74%, 661 students, 88% FRL); Mccollum H S (math 31% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 1,494 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 66% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-7.2%/yr); 389 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?