433 S Bowie St

Elsa, TX 78543

$220,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,055 sqft · Built 2013 · SingleFamily · Active · 194 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax + insurance: −$367
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $-335/mo
• Annual: $-4,024/yr
• Cap rate: 4.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.53%
• DSCR: 0.71
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $61,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-335 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $171k (22.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (31.8% below list).
• It's been on market 194 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $150k (31.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#648 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, employment D, amenities F.
• Edcouch-Elsa ISD (suburban): math 9% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #822 of 826 in TX (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: L B J El (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 472 students, 93% FRL); Carlos Truan J H (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,579 of 1,662 statewide, top 95%, 622 students, 93% FRL); Edcouch-Elsa H S (math 7% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,501 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 1,345 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 74% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 194 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.