433 S Bowie St · Elsa, TX 78543

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,055 sqft · SingleFamily · 194 Days on market

Built 2013 7,980 sqft lot $107/sqft · 18% below area Est $268k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your next home—an inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bath gem tucked away in a quiet, peaceful neighborhood! The home features three comfortable bedrooms and two well-kept bathrooms, making it ideal for families, first-time buyers, or anyone seeking a relaxed lifestyle. The peaceful surroundings and low-traffic street make this property feel like a retreat, while still being close to everything you need. Just minutes away, you’ll find major conveniences such as H-E-B, Walmart, IDEA Public Schools, CVS, AutoZone, and popular dining options—giving you the perfect blend of privacy and accessibility. Whether you’re starting a new chapter or looking for a quiet place to call home, this property offers comfort, value, and a welcoming atmosphere from the moment you arrive. Come see why this home is the perfect fit for you!

Key facts

• 7,980 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2013

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-335 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $171k (22.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (31.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (31.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#648 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, employment D, amenities F.
• Edcouch-Elsa ISD (suburban): math 9% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #822 of 826 in TX (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: L B J El (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 472 students, 93% FRL); Carlos Truan J H (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,579 of 1,662 statewide, top 95%, 622 students, 93% FRL); Edcouch-Elsa H S (math 7% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,501 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 1,345 students, 94% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 74% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 194 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,000 (31.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 194 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.53%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $267,925
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: -17.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
206 E Ricky Crossland Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0	2,219 (+8%)	7mo	$187,000	$84	54
17610 W Campana Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,905 (-7%)	21mo	$280,000	$147	48
8609 Campana Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,900 (-8%)	14mo	$344,500	$181	43
8510 G M Dr	0.53mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,344 (+14%)	6mo	$360,000	$154	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.77% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $26,514
• Equity at exit: $121,633

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $100,090
• Equity at exit: $207,453

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78543

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$275 /mo · $3,300/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $-335

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,925

Max offer price $171,471

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-183	-5% $-259	+0% $-335	+5% $-411	+10% $-487
Rent	-10% $-454	-5% $-395	+0% $-335	+5% $-276	+10% $-217
Rate	-1.0pp $-225	-0.5pp $-279	base $-335	+0.5pp $-392	+1.0pp $-450

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
415 Edinburg Ave #107 Elsa, TX	3.0	1.0	1800	$1,500	$0.83	45d	1	0.48mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $220,000 Active 194 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $220,000 Active 193 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 191 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 190 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 189 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 188 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 186 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $220,000 Active 185 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 182 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $220,000 Active 181 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $220,000 Active 180 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $220,000 Active 179 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 176 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 175 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 174 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 173 DOM
17. 2025-12-09
    listed $220,000 Active 849-char remark

    Show marketing remark (849 chars)

    Welcome to your next home—an inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bath gem tucked away in a quiet, peaceful neighborhood! The home features three comfortable bedrooms and two well-kept bathrooms, making it ideal for families, first-time buyers, or anyone seeking a relaxed lifestyle. The peaceful surroundings and low-traffic street make this property feel like a retreat, while still being close to everything you need. Just minutes away, you’ll find major conveniences such as H-E-B, Walmart, IDEA Public Schools, CVS, AutoZone, and popular dining options—giving you the perfect blend of privacy and accessibility. Whether you’re starting a new chapter or looking for a quiet place to call home, this property offers comfort, value, and a welcoming atmosphere from the moment you arrive. Come see why this home is the perfect fit for you!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$3,300
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,440
• − Management: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$8,003
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,921
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,104/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Edcouch-Elsa ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818060
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $25,724
• Composite: 10.99/100
• National rank: #9744
• State rank: #822 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elsa

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #648
• US rank: #12248

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elsa, TX
• City population: 8,608
• Population (ZIP): 8,608

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 98% Two or more races 56% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 96%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 19% English-only · Spanish 81%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.77%
• Current HPI: 250.7357
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-09 Listed $220,000 MCALLENMLS