32 Fort Caroline Ln

Palm Coast, FL 32137

$249,900C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,540 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Active · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,226/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$416
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $32/mo
• Annual: $380/yr
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.54%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $69,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $32 ($380/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (10.9% below list).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $223k (10.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#478 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Flagler (rural): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #20 of 73 in FL (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Old Kings Elementary School (math 74% / reading 72%, grade A, #271 of 2,144 statewide, top 13%, 979 students, 52% FRL); Indian Trails Middle School (math 64% / reading 59%, grade B+, #124 of 571 statewide, top 22%, 1,518 students, 50% FRL); Matanzas High School (math 36% / reading 53%, grade F, #237 of 667 statewide, top 36%, 1,978 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1616 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,588 units permitted in Flagler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Flagler County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $77k; list at $250k implies a 225% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.8% in Palm Coast — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.