131 Birchbark Dr

Elyria, OH 44035

$54,900B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Built 1995 · Land · Active · 186 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,350/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax + insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $687/mo
• Annual: $8,249/yr
• Cap rate: 21.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.66%
• DSCR: 3.39
• 1% rule: 2.46%
• Cash to close: $15,372

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $55k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $687 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• It's been on market 186 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#243 in OH, #3,869 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, employment D, commute F.
• Keystone Local (rural): math 55% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #249 of 656 in OH (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.7%/yr); 356 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,098 units permitted in Lorain County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.7% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 21.3% vs local median 3.8% in Elyria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 186 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.