131 Birchbark Dr · Elyria, OH 44035

$54,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Land · 186 Days on market

Built 1995 $34/sqft · 22% above area Est $45k · 22% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath double-wide home located in a desirable 55+ community! Step through the inviting sunroom—complete with a cozy gas heater and sliding glass doors—into your own private, fenced-in courtyard. An attached storage shed offers a perfect workshop space and can be conveniently accessed from inside the home. Enjoy a spacious living room that flows into the open, eat-in kitchen featuring ample cabinetry and a built-in hutch. The primary bedroom offers a private en-suite bath with a shower stall, soaking tub, vanity, and toilet. A comfortable second bedroom and an updated hall bath provide additional convenience. The separate laundry room includes access to the backyard, where you’ll find another small storage shed. The yard is thoughtfully divided by gorgeous Rose of Sharon bushes, complemented by beautiful flower gardens and lush landscaping. Appliances included: dishwasher, gas range, newer refrigerator, washer, and dryer. Move-in ready and full of charm—don’t miss this peaceful, well-kept home! Twin Lakes isn’t just a home—it’s a lifestyle. Enjoy: ~ Large clubhouse & fitness center ~ Outdoor patio & BBQ area ~ Pickleball & bocce courts ~ Dog park & social activities like line dancing, cards, book club, and Browns watch parties! All appliances and bedroom furniture included! PARK REQUIREMENTS: 55+ yr old, 650+ credit score, pass background check, no bankruptcy in past 3 years. Don’t wait—schedule your private showing today and see why everyone loves Twin Lakes!

Key facts

• Open eat-in kitchen
• Laundry room
• Built-in hutch

Tags

• PRIVATE FENCED-IN COURTYARD
• ATTACHED STORAGE SHED
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• OPEN EAT-IN KITCHEN
• BUILT-IN HUTCH
• LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $687 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.3% vs local median 3.8% in Elyria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#243 in OH, #3,869 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, employment D, commute F.
• Keystone Local (rural): math 55% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #249 of 656 in OH (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.7%/yr); 356 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,098 units permitted in Lorain County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.7% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 186 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $48,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 186 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.66%
• DSCR: 3.39
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $44,982
• List price: $54,900
• Delta: 22.05%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.61×
• Total profit: $40,181
• Equity at exit: $8,186

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.47×
• Total profit: $114,819
• Equity at exit: $4,747

Cash invested: $15,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44035

• Rents YoY: 6.7%
• Active inventory: 356
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,350 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$69 /mo · $824/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $687

Break-even live

Break-even rent $480

Max offer price $54,900

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,725
• Closing costs: $1,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9005 Murray Ridge Rd Elyria, OH	3.0	3.5	1950	$2,095	$1.07	1d	1	0.59mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $54,900 Active 186 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $54,900 Active 185 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $54,900 Active 184 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $54,900 Active 183 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $54,900 Active 181 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $54,900 Active 177 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $54,900 Active 176 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $60,000 Active 174 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $60,000 Active 173 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $60,000 Active 172 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 171 DOM
12. 2025-12-10
    listed $60,000 Active 1604-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1604 chars)

    Welcome to this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath double-wide home located in a desirable 55+ community! Step through the inviting sunroom—complete with a cozy gas heater and sliding glass doors—into your own private, fenced-in courtyard. An attached storage shed offers a perfect workshop space and can be conveniently accessed from inside the home. Enjoy a spacious living room that flows into the open, eat-in kitchen featuring ample cabinetry and a built-in hutch. The primary bedroom offers a private en-suite bath with a shower stall, soaking tub, vanity, and toilet. A comfortable second bedroom and an updated hall bath provide additional convenience. The separate laundry room includes access to the backyard, where you’ll find another small storage shed. The yard is thoughtfully divided by gorgeous Rose of Sharon bushes, complemented by beautiful flower gardens and lush landscaping. Appliances included: dishwasher, gas range, newer refrigerator, washer, and dryer. Move-in ready and full of charm—don’t miss this peaceful, well-kept home! Twin Lakes isn’t just a home—it’s a lifestyle. Enjoy: ~ Large clubhouse & fitness center ~ Outdoor patio & BBQ area ~ Pickleball & bocce courts ~ Dog park & social activities like line dancing, cards, book club, and Browns watch parties! All appliances and bedroom furniture included! PARK REQUIREMENTS: 55+ yr old, 650+ credit score, pass background check, no bankruptcy in past 3 years. Don’t wait—schedule your private showing today and see why everyone loves Twin Lakes!

13. 2007-01-26
    historical
14. 2006-07-26
    listed $59,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,205
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,075
• − Property taxes: −$824
• − Insurance: −$274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,296
• − Management: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$1,597
• Taxable income: $7,842
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,882
• After-tax cash flow: $6,367/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Keystone Local
• NCES district ID: 3904816
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $64,696
• Composite: 53.27/100
• National rank: #1493
• State rank: #249 of 656 in OH

Livability — Elyria

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #243
• US rank: #3869

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elyria, OH
• County: Lorain County · 219,437 people
• City population: 62,179
• Metro: Cleveland-Elyria, OH
• Population (ZIP): 62,179
• Household income: $56,408
• Rent vs Own: 37.3% rent · 62.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2229.0

Population outlook (Lorain County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 314,924 people
• By 2030: 317,546 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 317,962 · +1.0%
• By 2050: 312,872 · -0.7%
• By 2075: 301,806 · -4.2%
• By 2100: 278,271 · -11.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Two or more races 12% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lorain

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.7) · D 46.7% · R 52.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.9pp · 2024: -5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.7 2020: R+2.5 2016: R+0.3 2012: D+14.4 2008: D+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -139.09%
• Current HPI: 199.7354
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.74%
• Metro: Cleveland-Elyria, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+0.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-10 Listed $60,000 MLSNOW
• 2007-01-26 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2006-07-26 Listed $59,900 MLSNOW

Property tax history

+16.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $20,488 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.