12099A Turner Hill Rd

Elkins, AR 72727

$200,000C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 112 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,523/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax + insurance: −$233
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $-78/mo
• Annual: $-941/yr
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.68%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $56,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-78 ($-941/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (23.8% below list).
• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $152k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#186 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Elkins School District (rural): math 43% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #57 of 238 in AR (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,494 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (1,497 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask is 25% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $135k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.2% in Elkins — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.