12099A Turner Hill Rd · Elkins, AR 72727

$200,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 112 Days on market

Built 1970 4.53 ac lot $133/sqft · 38% below area Est $322k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor / Flip Opportunity! Come see this amazing house with acreage, shop, and swimming pool. Only 10 mins from downtown Elkins, come see what country living is all about. House being sold AS-IS on 4.531 acres with pond.

Key facts

• Acreage
• Country living
• Pond

Tags

• ACREAGE
• SWIMMING POOL
• COUNTRY LIVING
• POND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-78 ($-941/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (6.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (23.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $152k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.2% in Elkins — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#186 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Elkins School District (rural): math 43% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #57 of 238 in AR (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,494 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (1,497 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Washington County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask is 25% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $135k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $152,321 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.68%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $322,424
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -37.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12130 Turner Hill Rd	0.11mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,358 (-10%)	13mo	$275,000	$203	59
20138 Durham Mccord Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,676 (+12%)	8mo	$363,900	$217	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $21,811
• Equity at exit: $92,853

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $81,247
• Equity at exit: $145,413

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72727

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,523 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,795/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $-78

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,622

Max offer price $186,154

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 112 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 111 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 110 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 109 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 107 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 104 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $200,000 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $200,000 Active 98 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 96 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 95 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 94 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 93 DOM
16. 2026-02-26
    listed $200,000 Active 222-char remark

    Show marketing remark (183 chars)

    Come get a slice of country living! Mobile home on 1.8 acres tucked away just 10 minutes from town (Elkins). Single wide with 3 bedrooms and 2 bath. Large yard with lots of potential.

17. 2026-02-26
    listed $160,000 Active 183-char remark

    Show marketing remark (183 chars)

    Come get a slice of country living! Mobile home on 1.8 acres tucked away just 10 minutes from town (Elkins). Single wide with 3 bedrooms and 2 bath. Large yard with lots of potential.

18. 2021-04-16
    soldstatus $135,000
19. 2021-04-13
    soldstatus $135,000
20. 2020-11-23
    listed $165,000
21. 2015-08-27
    soldstatus $60,000
22. 2008-03-04
    soldstatus $93,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,795 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,795 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,279
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,795
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,462
• − Management: −$1,462
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$4,462
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,071
• After-tax cash flow: $130/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elkins School District
• NCES district ID: 0505760
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $49,357
• Composite: 35.69/100
• National rank: #4867
• State rank: #57 of 238 in AR

Livability — Elkins

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #186
• US rank: #14848

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Washington County · 252,056 people
• City population: 6,703
• Metro: Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR
• Population (ZIP): 6,703
• Household income: $75,402
• Rent vs Own: 12.7% rent · 87.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,748 people
• By 2030: 296,414 · +9.1%
• By 2040: 346,874 · +27.6%
• By 2050: 398,552 · +46.7%
• By 2075: 523,309 · +92.6%
• By 2100: 615,280 · +126.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.7) · D 45.1% · R 51.7% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -13.1pp · 2024: -6.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.7 2020: R+3.9 2016: R+10.4 2012: R+16.3 2008: R+13.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.26%
• Current HPI: 310.3549
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+72.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Listed $160,000 NWARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $200,000 NWARMLS
• 2021-04-16 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2021-04-13 Sold (MLS) $135,000 NWARMLS
• 2020-11-23 Listed $165,000 NWARMLS
• 2015-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2008-03-04 Sold (Public Records) $93,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,795 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.