616 Page St

San Francisco, CA 94117

$1,349,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,667 sqft · Built 1895 · Condo · Pending · 14 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,411/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,074
• Tax + insurance: −$2,248
• HOA: −$805
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,556
• Net cashflow: $-4,273/mo
• Annual: $-51,273/yr
• Cap rate: 2.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.57%
• DSCR: 0.40
• 1% rule: 0.55%
• Cash to close: $377,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $1.35M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-51k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $731k (45.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $741k (45.1% below list).
• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $731k (45.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $134k of equity ($9k loan paydown + $125k appreciation (9.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lilienthal (Claire) Elementary (669 students, 19% FRL); Giannini (A.P.) Middle (1,192 students, 34% FRL); Lowell High (2,632 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 49% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1895 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+18.2%/yr); 74 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$216k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• At $7,411/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($167k/yr) (locally 1811% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1895 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?