616 Page St · San Francisco, CA 94117

$1,349,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,667 sqft · Condo · 14 Days on market

Built 1895 $809/sqft · 37% below area Est $2132k · 37% under $805/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Cash flow +3.2/30.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come be enchanted. This gracious 3BD offers exquisite original detail, hi ceilings, historic architecture & a walk-out garden in the center of ultra-chic Hayes Valley. Spectacular location w/ walkable access to the Divisadero Corridor as well as Hayes & Lower Haight. One of the few, fire-surviving residential projects by famed architect William Mooser (Ghirardelli Square), 616 Page was built in 1890 & showcases transitional Queen Anne & Stick architectural styles, set back from the street. Timeless & ethereal, the central hallway could be an art gallery or waltz hall to the dining rm which beckons beyond, partially concealed & draws the visitor in. Kitchen looks to the spacious backyard. This compelling home calls out for your unique touch.

Key facts

• Walk-out access
• Shared front patio
• Freestanding island

Tags

• VICTORIAN FLAT
• GATED ENTRY
• SHARED FRONT PATIO
• STYLISH OPEN SHELVING
• FREESTANDING ISLAND
• WALK-OUT ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Part of a 3-unit community
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a monthly fee of $805; Association covers common areas, structure insurance, structure and grounds maintenance, trash, and water; Community amenities include a barbecue

Exterior

• Security: Security gate; Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Victorian residence; Tenancy in common; Faces south; Entry at ground level
• Construction: Built in 1895
• Exterior features: Uncovered deck; Uncovered patio; Shed(s); Garden and landscaped, low-maintenance front landscaping

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing gas range; Free-standing refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Formal entry; Two fireplaces with gas starters and inserts serving the living room and dining room; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in an inside laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $1.35M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-51k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $731k (45.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $741k (45.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $731k (45.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lilienthal (Claire) Elementary (669 students, 19% FRL); Giannini (A.P.) Middle (1,192 students, 34% FRL); Lowell High (2,632 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 49% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+18.2%/yr); 74 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,411/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($167k/yr) (locally 1811% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $134k of equity ($9k loan paydown + $125k appreciation (9.3% local appreciation)).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$216k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1895 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $730,729 (45.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1895 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.57%
• DSCR: 0.40
• GRM: 15.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,132,333
• List price: $1,349,000
• Delta: -36.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

9.27% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $435,670
• Equity at exit: $1,144,358

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.18×
• Total profit: $1,580,306
• Equity at exit: $2,396,079

Cash invested: $377,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Francisco: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+57

SF Rent Ordinance + Eviction Protections; relocation $10k+; one of strictest in US.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94117

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Rents YoY: 18.2%
• Active inventory: 74
• Price-to-rent: 15.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,411 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,074
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,686 /mo · $20,235/yr
• Insurance: −$562
• HOA: −$805
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,556
• Net cashflow: $-4,273

Break-even live

Break-even rent $12,820

Max offer price $730,729

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-3,340	-5% $-3,807	+0% $-4,273	+5% $-4,739	+10% $-5,205
Rent	-10% $-4,858	-5% $-4,565	+0% $-4,273	+5% $-3,980	+10% $-3,687
Rate	-1.0pp $-3,593	-0.5pp $-3,930	base $-4,273	+0.5pp $-4,622	+1.0pp $-4,978

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $337,250
• Closing costs: $40,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
200 Buchanan St San Francisco, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$9,680	$9.53	0d	10	0.25mi
325 Octavia St San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	811	$7,503	$9.25	0d	1	0.39mi
257 Church St San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0	1100	$5,995	$5.45	45d	1	0.45mi
124 Alpine Ter San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	2200	$12,500	$5.68	26d	1	0.48mi
124 Alpine Ter San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	2200	$11,995	$5.45	13d	1	0.48mi
124 Alpine Ter San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	2200	$11,995	$5.45	16d	1	0.48mi
25 Baker St San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$6,500	$5.00	4d	1	0.55mi
25 Baker St Unit STREET1 San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$6,500	$5.00	6d	1	0.55mi
1 Brady St San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	889	$7,400	$8.32	0d	26	0.57mi
1306 Page St San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	1500	$11,995	$8.00	45d	1	0.64mi
30 Otis St San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	874	$8,477	$9.69	0d	15	0.64mi
100 Van Ness Ave #1477 San Francisco, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	865	$7,990	$9.24	1d	2	0.69mi
140 S Van Ness Ave #1679 San Francisco, CA	2.0	2.0	1250	$5,760	$4.61	1d	1	0.69mi
1600 15th St San Francisco, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	931	$6,066	$6.52	1d	6	0.72mi
258 Dorland St Unit 7 San Francisco, CA	2.0	2.0	1500	$5,500	$3.67	45d	1	0.74mi
8 10th St San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	882	$9,205	$10.44	0d	25	0.77mi
47 Ford St San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.5	1401	$6,500	$4.64	22d	1	0.77mi
542 Valencia St Unit A San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0	1600	$5,000	$3.12	26d	1	0.78mi
4058 17th St #4062 San Francisco, CA	2.0	2.0	1300	$5,895	$4.53	20d	1	0.78mi
724 Central Ave San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0	1307	$5,795	$4.43	16d	1	0.78mi
165 States St San Francisco, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$6,000	$5.45	45d	1	0.79mi
826 Central Ave San Francisco, CA	3.0	1.0	1100	$4,989	$4.54	45d	1	0.81mi
55 9th St San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	833	$5,585	$6.70	0d	1	0.90mi
2075 Sutter St #525 San Francisco, CA	2.0	2.0	1084	$7,000	$6.46	45d	1	0.90mi
471 S Van Ness Ave San Francisco, CA	4.0	3.0	2140	$11,000	$5.14	17d	1	0.90mi
30 Washburn St Unit 3 San Francisco, CA	2.0	2.0	1576	$5,995	$3.80	9d	1	0.91mi
30 Washburn St San Francisco, CA	2.0	2.0	1576	$5,995	$3.80	26d	1	0.91mi
2156 Sutter St San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	1900	$9,995	$5.26	26d	1	0.93mi
1436 Waller St Unit 1436 San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	1800	$6,890	$3.83	45d	1	0.94mi
1288 Howard St #1908 San Francisco, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	782	$6,710	$8.58	4d	2	0.99mi
600 S Van Ness Ave San Francisco, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$6,500	$5.42	4d	1	0.99mi
170 Eureka St San Francisco, CA	2.0	1.5	1200	$8,995	$7.50	5d	1	1.01mi
4058 20th St San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	1794	$13,975	$7.79	26d	1	1.03mi
3436 19th St Unit A San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.0	1250	$7,225	$5.78	22d	1	1.05mi
380 10th St San Francisco, CA	2.0	2.0	1122	$5,495	$4.90	46d	1	1.05mi
1450 Franklin St #505 San Francisco, CA	2.0	2.0	1326	$7,600	$5.73	13d	1	1.12mi
1635 Gough St San Francisco, CA	3.0	1.0–2.0	880	$9,295	$10.56	1d	2	1.12mi
643 Cole St San Francisco, CA	3.0	1.5	1600	$5,245	$3.28	45d	1	1.12mi
82 Parnassus Ave San Francisco, CA	3.0	1.0	1701	$2,800	$1.65	4d	1	1.14mi
922 Valencia St Unit A San Francisco, CA	3.0	2.5	1250	$8,450	$6.76	45d	1	1.15mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $805 · $9,660/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-07
   listed $1,349,000 Active 1506-char remark
2. 2018-06-26
   soldstatus $1,520,000 Closed 786-char remark

   Show marketing remark (786 chars)

   Come be enchanted. This gracious 3BD offers exquisite original detail, hi ceilings, historic architecture & a walk-out garden in the center of ultra-chic Hayes Valley. Spectacular location w/ walkable access to the Divisadero Corridor as well as Hayes & Lower Haight. One of the few, fire-surviving residential projects by famed architect William Mooser (Ghirardelli Square), 616 Page was built in 1890 & showcases transitional Queen Anne & Stick architectural styles, set back from the street. Timeless & ethereal, the central hallway could be an art gallery or waltz hall to the dining rm which beckons beyond, partially concealed & draws the visitor in. Kitchen looks to the spacious backyard. This compelling home calls out for your unique touch.

3. 2018-05-21
   status Pending 786-char remark

   Show marketing remark (786 chars)

   Come be enchanted. This gracious 3BD offers exquisite original detail, hi ceilings, historic architecture & a walk-out garden in the center of ultra-chic Hayes Valley. Spectacular location w/ walkable access to the Divisadero Corridor as well as Hayes & Lower Haight. One of the few, fire-surviving residential projects by famed architect William Mooser (Ghirardelli Square), 616 Page was built in 1890 & showcases transitional Queen Anne & Stick architectural styles, set back from the street. Timeless & ethereal, the central hallway could be an art gallery or waltz hall to the dining rm which beckons beyond, partially concealed & draws the visitor in. Kitchen looks to the spacious backyard. This compelling home calls out for your unique touch.

4. 2018-05-03
   listed $1,395,000 Active 786-char remark

   Show marketing remark (786 chars)

   Come be enchanted. This gracious 3BD offers exquisite original detail, hi ceilings, historic architecture & a walk-out garden in the center of ultra-chic Hayes Valley. Spectacular location w/ walkable access to the Divisadero Corridor as well as Hayes & Lower Haight. One of the few, fire-surviving residential projects by famed architect William Mooser (Ghirardelli Square), 616 Page was built in 1890 & showcases transitional Queen Anne & Stick architectural styles, set back from the street. Timeless & ethereal, the central hallway could be an art gallery or waltz hall to the dining rm which beckons beyond, partially concealed & draws the visitor in. Kitchen looks to the spacious backyard. This compelling home calls out for your unique touch.

5. 2016-02-07
   historical
6. 2016-01-21
   status Contingent - Show
7. 2015-11-07
   listed $1,500,000 Active
8. 2014-12-22
   soldstatus $1,365,000 Closed
9. 2014-11-05
   status Contingent - Show
10. 2014-09-18
    listed $1,195,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥78°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $88,935
• − Mortgage interest: −$75,565
• − Property taxes: −$20,235
• − Insurance: −$6,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,115
• − Management: −$7,115
• − HOA: −$9,660
• − Depreciation: −$39,244
• Taxable loss: −$76,743
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$18,418
• After-tax cash flow: $-32,854/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Francisco Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634410
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,249
• Composite: 50.14/100
• National rank: #4088
• State rank: #322 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Francisco

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3143

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Francisco, CA
• County: San Francisco County · 827,552 people
• City population: 827,552
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 36,198
• Household income: $167,066
• Rent vs Own: 71.2% rent · 28.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1811.0

Population outlook (San Francisco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,030,936 people
• By 2030: 1,110,409 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 1,270,010 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 1,435,001 · +39.2%
• By 2075: 1,779,074 · +72.6%
• By 2100: 1,966,767 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Asian 14% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 5% Chinese 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Francisco

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 80.3% · R 15.5% · Other 4.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 70.5pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+72.5 2016: D+76.1 2012: D+70.2 2008: D+70.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.27%
• Current HPI: 228.7304
• Rent YoY: ▲ 18.24%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+25.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Sold (MLS) $1,500,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2026-05-21 Pending — San Francisco MLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $1,349,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2018-06-26 Sold (MLS) $1,520,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2018-05-21 Pending — San Francisco MLS
• 2018-05-03 Listed $1,395,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2016-02-07 Delisted — San Francisco MLS
• 2016-01-21 Pending — San Francisco MLS
• 2015-11-07 Listed $1,500,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2014-12-22 Sold (MLS) $1,365,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2014-11-05 Pending — San Francisco MLS
• 2014-09-18 Listed $1,195,000 San Francisco MLS