1448 Ailin Dr

College Station, TX 77845

$395,000D+

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 1,844 sqft · Built 2022 · Townhouse · Active · 216 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,458/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,071
• Tax + insurance: −$746
• HOA: −$120
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$936
• Net cashflow: $584/mo
• Annual: $7,011/yr
• Cap rate: 8.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.34%
• DSCR: 1.28
• 1% rule: 1.13%
• Cash to close: $110,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath townhouse listed at $395k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $584 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $395k).
• It's been on market 216 days — a 12% lower offer ($348k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $348k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#11 in TX, #994 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, crime A-; Watch: employment C-.
• Bryan ISD (urban): math 30% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #608 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 1168 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,211 units permitted in Brazos County in 2024 (768 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Brazos County population projected at +55% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.3% in College Station — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,458/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 3329% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 216 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.