4906 Wilder Rd

Pierrepont Manor, NY 13605

$129,900B-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,271 sqft · Built 1905 · SingleFamily · Pending · 54 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,505/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$224
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $284/mo
• Annual: $3,404/yr
• Cap rate: 8.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.36%
• DSCR: 1.42
• 1% rule: 1.16%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $284 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,133 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• South Jefferson Central School District (rural): math 35% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #420 of 590 in NY (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Maynard P Wilson Elementary School (math 31% / reading 56%, grade F, #1,350 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 520 students, 37% FRL); Clarke Middle School (math 24% / reading 54%, grade F, #433 of 729 statewide, top 60%, 435 students, 41% FRL); South Jefferson High School (math 92% / reading 92%, grade A+, #171 of 1,100 statewide, top 18%, 553 students, 46% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $130k implies a 225% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.