4906 Wilder Rd · Pierrepont Manor, NY 13605

$129,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,271 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1905 0.33 ac lot Est $121k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This one is so well cared for your current place might get jealous! Welcome to 4906 Wilder Rd, nestled on a large lot in the village of Mannsville. The home recently had new paint and new flooring so it really is move in ready. Enter to a very large living room with endless decor possibilities. The big windows bring in lots of natural light that makes the home very inviting. A eat in kitchen with plenty of storage is located in the rear of home along with a half bath and back door to the spacious yard. Upstairs you have a full bath and two nice sized bedrooms. One of those bedrooms used to be split into two making the home a 3 bedrooms, this could be done again. This property does have a o

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Plenty of storage
• New flooring

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• NEW PAINT
• NEW FLOORING
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• PLENTY OF STORAGE
• SPACIOUS YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $284 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,133 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, crime F, amenities F.
• South Jefferson Central School District (rural): math 35% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #420 of 590 in NY (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Maynard P Wilson Elementary School (math 31% / reading 56%, grade F, #1,350 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 520 students, 37% FRL); Clarke Middle School (math 24% / reading 54%, grade F, #433 of 729 statewide, top 60%, 435 students, 41% FRL); South Jefferson High School (math 92% / reading 92%, grade A+, #171 of 1,100 statewide, top 18%, 553 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $130k implies a 225% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $126,003 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.36%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $120,745
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4906 Wilder Rd	0.00mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,271 (0%)	1mo	$120,600	$95	94

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.44×
• Total profit: $88,843
• Equity at exit: $117,024

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.80×
• Total profit: $247,472
• Equity at exit: $252,367

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13605

• Home prices YoY: 12.7%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,505 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,037/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $284

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,146

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $357	-5% $320	+0% $284	+5% $247	+10% $210
Rent	-10% $165	-5% $224	+0% $284	+5% $343	+10% $403
Rate	-1.0pp $349	-0.5pp $317	base $284	+0.5pp $250	+1.0pp $216

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-03-27
   listed $129,900 Active
4. 2012-09-28
   soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,037 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,116 · $176/mo
• Expected delta: +$79/yr (+$7/mo · 3.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,058
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$2,037
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,445
• − Management: −$1,445
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $1,426
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$342
• After-tax cash flow: $3,062/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Jefferson Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3602340
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,872
• Composite: 41.27/100
• National rank: #3522
• State rank: #420 of 590 in NY

Livability — Pierrepont Manor

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1133
• US rank: #23330

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pierrepont Manor, NY
• Population (ZIP): 5,106

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 5% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 39.95%
• Current HPI: 354.8216
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+224.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-01 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $129,900 CNYIS
• 2012-09-28 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,037 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.