Jasmine Plan

Hampstead, NC 28443

$281,600D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built — · Townhouse · Active · 195 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,256/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,525
• Tax + insurance: −$485
• HOA: −$225
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$474
• Net cashflow: $-452/mo
• Annual: $-5,428/yr
• Cap rate: 4.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.67%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $81,434

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $282k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-452 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (20.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (19.9% below list).
• It's been on market 195 days — a 12% lower offer ($248k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $225k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#109 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pender County Schools (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #66 of 178 in NC (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: South Topsail Elementary (math 61% / reading 58%, grade B-, #205 of 1,410 statewide, top 16%, 557 students, 34% FRL); Topsail Middle (math 64% / reading 65%, grade A-, #30 of 475 statewide, top 7%, 807 students, 20% FRL); Topsail High (math 67% / reading 72%, grade B, #121 of 535 statewide, top 24%, 1,777 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 25% FRL vs 47% district-wide (22 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Pender County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 673 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 943 units permitted in Pender County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pender County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 3.0% in Hampstead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 195 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.