8921 Highway 29

East Brewton, AL 36426

$185,500D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,560 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Active · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,494/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$973
• Tax + insurance: −$309
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $-102/mo
• Annual: $-1,221/yr
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.35%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $51,940

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $186k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-102 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $171k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (19.5% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $149k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#174 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Escambia County (town): math 17% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #83 of 129 in AL (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: W S Neal Elementary School (math 17% / reading 52%, grade F, #296 of 627 statewide, top 49%, 542 students, 72% FRL); W S Neal Middle School (math 10% / reading 45%, grade F, #144 of 257 statewide, top 57%, 416 students, 76% FRL); W S Neal High School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #195 of 305 statewide, top 68%, 358 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools at 73% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Escambia County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.