629 Serenity Shores Dr

Grand Rivers, KY 42025

$515,000D-

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,793 sqft · Built 2020 · Other · Active · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,785/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,701
• Tax + insurance: −$371
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $-1,662/mo
• Annual: $-19,944/yr
• Cap rate: 2.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.83%
• DSCR: 0.38
• 1% rule: 0.35%
• Cash to close: $144,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath other listed at $515k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (57.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (65.3% below list).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($500k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $179k (65.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $55k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $52k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#165 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marshall County (rural): math 29% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #73 of 165 in KY (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jonathan Elementary School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #489 of 676 statewide, top 76%, 238 students, 72% FRL); South Marshall Middle (math 21% / reading 39%, grade F, #146 of 217 statewide, top 69%, 462 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 43% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 178 active listings in the ZIP; 121 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marshall County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $515k implies a 4192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$89k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.4% vs local median 1.2% in Grand Rivers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 65% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.