629 Serenity Shores Dr · Grand Rivers, KY 42025

$515,000

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,793 sqft · Other · 45 Days on market

Built 2020 0.67 ac lot $184/sqft · 23% below area Est $665k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Cash flow +3.0/30.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Year-round water views from every level of this 3 bedroom, 3 full and 1 half bath lake home in Serenity Shores on Kentucky Lake. Offering 2,793 sqft across three levels on a 0.67 acre lot, this 2020-built home is move-in ready with modern finishes throughout and energy-effiecient living. The main level features open-concept layout, kitchen, and dining with a large island, stainless appliances, fireplace, and access to a wrap-around deck. The primary suite, laundry, and a half bath are also on the main floor for convenient one-level living. Upstairs includes two bedrooms (one with a private balcony with lake views) and a full bath. The walkout basement adds flexible living space with a full

Key facts

• 0.67 acre lot
• Built 2020
• Listed 44 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Gravel parking
• Utilities: Natural gas available; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Frame construction with wood siding; Below-grade finished area present
• Exterior features: Balcony; Covered porch/patio; Property offers a view; Lot approximately 0.67 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Cooktop
• Flooring: Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Pantry; Gas log fireplace in the living room; Basement with full finish and walk-out access
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath other listed at $515k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (57.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (65.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (65.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.4% vs local median 1.4% in Grand Rivers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#165 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marshall County (rural): math 29% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #73 of 165 in KY (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jonathan Elementary School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #489 of 676 statewide, top 76%, 238 students, 72% FRL); South Marshall Middle (math 21% / reading 39%, grade F, #146 of 217 statewide, top 69%, 462 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 43% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 178 active listings in the ZIP; 121 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $55k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $52k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Marshall County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$89k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($500k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $515k implies a 4192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,505 (65.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 65% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.35% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.83%
• DSCR: 0.38
• GRM: 24.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $665,465
• List price: $515,000
• Delta: -22.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $174,356
• Equity at exit: $463,953

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.13×
• Total profit: $596,151
• Equity at exit: $1,000,532

Cash invested: $144,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42025

• Home prices YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 178
• Price-to-rent: 24.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,785 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,701
• Tax from tax record: −$157 /mo · $1,883/yr
• Insurance: −$215
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $-1,662

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,889

Max offer price $221,397

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,370	-5% $-1,516	+0% $-1,662	+5% $-1,808	+10% $-1,954
Rent	-10% $-1,803	-5% $-1,733	+0% $-1,662	+5% $-1,592	+10% $-1,521
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,403	-0.5pp $-1,531	base $-1,662	+0.5pp $-1,795	+1.0pp $-1,931

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $128,750
• Closing costs: $15,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $515,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $515,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $515,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $515,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $515,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $515,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $515,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $515,000 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $515,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $515,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $515,000 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $515,000 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $515,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $515,000 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $515,000 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-05
    listed $515,000 Active 927-char remark
17. 2011-10-17
    soldstatus $12,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,883 · $157/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,429 · $369/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,546/yr (+$212/mo · 135.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,421
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,848
• − Property taxes: −$1,883
• − Insurance: −$2,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,714
• − Management: −$1,714
• − Depreciation: −$14,982
• Taxable loss: −$30,294
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,271
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,674/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marshall County
• NCES district ID: 2103810
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $45,324
• Composite: 28.62/100
• National rank: #6710
• State rank: #73 of 165 in KY

Livability — Grand Rivers

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #8446

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 19,238

Population outlook (Marshall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 30,647 people
• By 2030: 30,276 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 29,232 · -4.6%
• By 2050: 27,940 · -8.8%
• By 2075: 25,289 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 21,188 · -30.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marshall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.7) · D 21.0% · R 77.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.0pp toward R · 2008: -24.7pp · 2024: -56.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.7 2020: R+52.4 2016: R+51.9 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+24.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.11%
• Current HPI: 288.75
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+4191.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $515,000 WKRMLS
• 2011-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $12,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+25.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,883 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.