Davenport Plan

Palm Coast, FL 32137

$346,990D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,842 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 226 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,040/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,971
• Tax + insurance: −$626
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$639
• Net cashflow: $-195/mo
• Annual: $-2,338/yr
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.22%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $105,215

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $347k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-195 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $304k (12.4% below list).
• It's been on market 226 days — a 12% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $304k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#478 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Flagler (rural): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #20 of 73 in FL (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Old Kings Elementary School (math 74% / reading 72%, grade A, #271 of 2,144 statewide, top 13%, 979 students, 52% FRL); Buddy Taylor Middle School (math 50% / reading 45%, grade C-, #288 of 571 statewide, top 51%, 1,343 students, 63% FRL); Flagler-Palm Coast High School (math 36% / reading 51%, grade F, #248 of 667 statewide, top 38%, 2,523 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1616 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,588 units permitted in Flagler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Flagler County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.8% in Palm Coast — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 226 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.