Davenport Plan · Palm Coast, FL 32137

$346,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,842 sqft · SingleFamily · 226 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for a new home in Palm Coast, FL? The Davenport floorplan offers a spacious layout with 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms and 3-car garage. Enjoy a chef inspired kitchen with a large work island that overlooks the dining, great room and covered lanai.

Key facts

• Covered lanai
• Large work island
• 3 garage spots

Tags

• CHEF INSPIRED KITCHEN
• LARGE WORK ISLAND
• COVERED LANAI

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $354,990

Exterior

• Parking: 3 total parking spaces; 3-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home (Davenport plan); Address: Palm Coast, FL 32137
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,842 (plan)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: Davenport (new construction plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $346,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $375,768.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $347k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-195 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $304k (12.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $304k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.8% in Palm Coast — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#478 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Flagler (rural): math 53% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #20 of 73 in FL (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Old Kings Elementary School (math 74% / reading 72%, grade A, #271 of 2,144 statewide, top 13%, 979 students, 52% FRL); Buddy Taylor Middle School (math 50% / reading 45%, grade C-, #288 of 571 statewide, top 51%, 1,343 students, 63% FRL); Flagler-Palm Coast High School (math 36% / reading 51%, grade F, #248 of 667 statewide, top 38%, 2,523 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1616 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,588 units permitted in Flagler County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Flagler County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 226 days — a 12% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $304,048 (12.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 226 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.22%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $375,768
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
64 Ararat Dr	0.19mi	4/3.0	1,842 (0%)	2mo	$379,990	$206	90
55 Ararat Dr	0.22mi	4/3.0	1,842 (0%)	2mo	$362,990	$197	88
66 Ararat Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,817 (-1%)	2mo	$360,000	$198	84
38 Armoyan Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,764 (-4%)	3mo	$385,000	$218	77
14 Oconee Dr	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,817 (-1%)	3mo	$364,990	$201	77
20 Ararat Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,817 (-1%)	3mo	$360,990	$199	76
41 Oconee Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,764 (-4%)	3mo	$400,000	$227	74
47 Oconee Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,764 (-4%)	3mo	$359,990	$204	73
63 Ararat Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,692 (-8%)	1mo	$349,990	$207	67
51 Ararat Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,692 (-8%)	3mo	$349,990	$207	65
35 Armoyan Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,055 (+12%)	2mo	$405,000	$197	64
49 Oconee Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,055 (+12%)	3mo	$399,000	$194	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-79,696
• Equity at exit: $56,028

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-110,501
• Equity at exit: $32,490

Cash invested: $105,215 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32137

• Home prices YoY: -34.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 1616
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,040 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,971
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$470 /mo · $5,637/yr
• Insurance: −$157
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$639
• Net cashflow: $-195

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,287

Max offer price $347,570

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $65	-5% $-65	+0% $-195	+5% $-325	+10% $-455
Rent	-10% $-435	-5% $-315	+0% $-195	+5% $-75	+10% $45
Rate	-1.0pp $-6	-0.5pp $-99	base $-195	+0.5pp $-292	+1.0pp $-391

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,942
• Closing costs: $11,273
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
60 Del Palma Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	2.0	1837	$3,450	$1.88	16d	1	0.77mi
60 Del Palma Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	3.0	1839	$3,450	$1.88	4d	1	0.77mi
20 Del Palma Dr Palm Coast, FL	3.0	3.0	1937	$3,000	$1.55	25d	1	0.92mi
1 Henry Cir Flagler Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$2,127	$2.12	4d	14	1.02mi
89 Signet Cir Flagler Beach, FL	4.0	3.0	2240	$2,995	$1.34	4d	1	1.14mi
65 Signet Cir Flagler Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1541	$2,500	$1.62	16d	1	1.21mi
55 Signet Cir Flagler Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1541	$2,550	$1.65	25d	1	1.23mi
53 Signet Cir Flagler Beach, FL	4.0	2.0	2003	$2,800	$1.40	25d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $346,990 Active 226 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $346,990 Active 223 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $346,990 Active 222 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $351,990 Active 221 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $351,990 Active 220 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $351,990 Active 218 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $351,990 Active 217 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $351,990 Active 215 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $351,990 Active 214 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $351,990 Active 213 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $351,990 Active 212 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $351,990 Active 208 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $351,990 Active 207 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $351,990 Active 206 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $351,990 Active 205 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,486
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,049
• − Property taxes: −$5,637
• − Insurance: −$1,879
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,919
• − Management: −$2,919
• − Depreciation: −$10,931
• Taxable loss: −$8,848
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,123
• After-tax cash flow: $-215/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flagler
• NCES district ID: 1200540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,354
• Composite: 46.35/100
• National rank: #2464
• State rank: #20 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Coast

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #478
• US rank: #8721

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Coast, FL
• County: Flagler County · 113,412 people
• City population: 105,049
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 48,391
• Household income: $83,923
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 816.0

Population outlook (Flagler County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,474 people
• By 2030: 131,864 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 146,176 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 157,398 · +27.5%
• By 2075: 177,990 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 183,381 · +48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Russian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Flagler

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.2) · D 35.6% · R 63.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: -28.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.2 2020: R+20.8 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -153.27%
• Current HPI: 290.4607
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.85%
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B