162 Thierman Ln

St. Matthews, KY 40207

$525,000D

None bd · None ba · 3,016 sqft · Built 1960 · MultiFamily · Pending · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,632/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,753
• Tax + insurance: −$640
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$973
• Net cashflow: $266/mo
• Annual: $3,195/yr
• Cap rate: 6.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.17%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $147,000

Investor read

• This is a multifamily listed at $525k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $266 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $463k (11.8% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $463k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.1% in St. Matthews — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,632/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($102k/yr) (locally 751% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.