521 County Road 3070

Crockett, TX 75835

$135,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,716 sqft · Built 2001 · Manufactured · Active · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,385/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax + insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $243/mo
• Annual: $2,921/yr
• Cap rate: 8.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.73%
• DSCR: 1.34
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $37,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $243 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $131k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,005 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Crockett ISD (town): math 22% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #736 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Crockett H S (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #897 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 361 students, 85% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 25% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Crockett ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 277 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Houston County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 8 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.2% in Crockett — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.