521 County Road 3070 · Crockett, TX 75835

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,716 sqft · Manufactured public records · 43 Days on market

Built 2001 0.91 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

COUNTRY LIVING! Located in the Porter Springs Community, this home offers the perfect place for quiet country living and is just a short drive to town. With four bedrooms and two full baths, you'll have plenty of room for the family. Situated on almost a full acre of land, there is space to keep your pets and livestock – there is fenced backyard and horse pen. Upon entering the home, you'll appreciate the wheelchair accessible ramps leading from the covered carport. Inside of the home is an open concept living room and kitchen with built-in cabinetry and a gas fireplace to keep cozy during the cool winter months. The primary bedroom has a private bath with a walk-in shower and jacuzzi tub. The three guest bedrooms share a full bath with a shower/tub combo. Give us a call today to schedule a private showing!

Key facts

• Horse pen
• Built-in cabinetry
• Gas fireplace

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• HORSE PEN
• WHEELCHAIR ACCESSIBLE RAMPS
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING ROOM
• BUILT-IN CABINETRY
• GAS FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Aerobic septic
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (all bedrooms listed on first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2001; Vinyl siding; Block foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Cleared lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 15 x 12.5); Second bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12.5 x 10.5); Third bedroom on the first floor (approx. 10.5 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Space heater for heating; Window unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Washer hookup and electric dryer hookup; Carpet flooring
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $243 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.2% in Crockett — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,005 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Crockett ISD (town): math 22% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #736 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Crockett H S (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #897 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 361 students, 85% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 25% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Crockett ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 277 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Houston County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,950 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.73%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-6,405
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $14,262
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75835

• Home prices YoY: -15.8%
• Active inventory: 277
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,385 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,039/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $243

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,077

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $135,000 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    status Active 824-char remark

    Show marketing remark (824 chars)

    COUNTRY LIVING! Located in the Porter Springs Community, this home offers the perfect place for quiet country living and is just a short drive to town. With four bedrooms and two full baths, you'll have plenty of room for the family. Situated on almost a full acre of land, there is space to keep your pets and livestock – there is fenced backyard and horse pen. Upon entering the home, you'll appreciate the wheelchair accessible ramps leading from the covered carport. Inside of the home is an open concept living room and kitchen with built-in cabinetry and a gas fireplace to keep cozy during the cool winter months. The primary bedroom has a private bath with a walk-in shower and jacuzzi tub. The three guest bedrooms share a full bath with a shower/tub combo. Give us a call today to schedule a private showing!

16. 2026-05-07
    price $135,000 824-char remark

    Show marketing remark (824 chars)

    COUNTRY LIVING! Located in the Porter Springs Community, this home offers the perfect place for quiet country living and is just a short drive to town. With four bedrooms and two full baths, you'll have plenty of room for the family. Situated on almost a full acre of land, there is space to keep your pets and livestock – there is fenced backyard and horse pen. Upon entering the home, you'll appreciate the wheelchair accessible ramps leading from the covered carport. Inside of the home is an open concept living room and kitchen with built-in cabinetry and a gas fireplace to keep cozy during the cool winter months. The primary bedroom has a private bath with a walk-in shower and jacuzzi tub. The three guest bedrooms share a full bath with a shower/tub combo. Give us a call today to schedule a private showing!

17. 2026-05-06
    price $135,000 836-char remark

    Show marketing remark (836 chars)

    COUNTRY LIVING! Located in the Porter Springs Community, this home offers the perfect place for quiet country living and is just a short drive to town. With four bedrooms and two full baths, you’ll have plenty of room for the family. Situated on almost a full acre of land, there is space to keep your pets and livestock – there is fenced backyard and horse pen. Upon entering the home, you’ll appreciate the wheelchair accessible ramps leading from the covered carport. Inside of the home is an open concept living room and kitchen with built-in cabinetry and a gas fireplace to keep cozy during the cool winter months. The primary bedroom has a private bath with a walk-in shower and jacuzzi tub. The three guest bedrooms share a full bath with a shower/tub combo. Give us a call today to schedule a private showing!

18. 2026-05-06
    listed $135,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (836 chars)

    COUNTRY LIVING! Located in the Porter Springs Community, this home offers the perfect place for quiet country living and is just a short drive to town. With four bedrooms and two full baths, you’ll have plenty of room for the family. Situated on almost a full acre of land, there is space to keep your pets and livestock – there is fenced backyard and horse pen. Upon entering the home, you’ll appreciate the wheelchair accessible ramps leading from the covered carport. Inside of the home is an open concept living room and kitchen with built-in cabinetry and a gas fireplace to keep cozy during the cool winter months. The primary bedroom has a private bath with a walk-in shower and jacuzzi tub. The three guest bedrooms share a full bath with a shower/tub combo. Give us a call today to schedule a private showing!

19. 2026-05-04
    historical
20. 2026-01-27
    historical 824-char remark

    Show marketing remark (824 chars)

    COUNTRY LIVING! Located in the Porter Springs Community, this home offers the perfect place for quiet country living and is just a short drive to town. With four bedrooms and two full baths, you'll have plenty of room for the family. Situated on almost a full acre of land, there is space to keep your pets and livestock – there is fenced backyard and horse pen. Upon entering the home, you'll appreciate the wheelchair accessible ramps leading from the covered carport. Inside of the home is an open concept living room and kitchen with built-in cabinetry and a gas fireplace to keep cozy during the cool winter months. The primary bedroom has a private bath with a walk-in shower and jacuzzi tub. The three guest bedrooms share a full bath with a shower/tub combo. Give us a call today to schedule a private showing!

21. 2025-08-27
    listed $149,000 Active 824-char remark

    Show marketing remark (836 chars)

    COUNTRY LIVING! Located in the Porter Springs Community, this home offers the perfect place for quiet country living and is just a short drive to town. With four bedrooms and two full baths, you’ll have plenty of room for the family. Situated on almost a full acre of land, there is space to keep your pets and livestock – there is fenced backyard and horse pen. Upon entering the home, you’ll appreciate the wheelchair accessible ramps leading from the covered carport. Inside of the home is an open concept living room and kitchen with built-in cabinetry and a gas fireplace to keep cozy during the cool winter months. The primary bedroom has a private bath with a walk-in shower and jacuzzi tub. The three guest bedrooms share a full bath with a shower/tub combo. Give us a call today to schedule a private showing!

22. 2025-08-27
    listed $149,000 Active 836-char remark

    Show marketing remark (836 chars)

    COUNTRY LIVING! Located in the Porter Springs Community, this home offers the perfect place for quiet country living and is just a short drive to town. With four bedrooms and two full baths, you’ll have plenty of room for the family. Situated on almost a full acre of land, there is space to keep your pets and livestock – there is fenced backyard and horse pen. Upon entering the home, you’ll appreciate the wheelchair accessible ramps leading from the covered carport. Inside of the home is an open concept living room and kitchen with built-in cabinetry and a gas fireplace to keep cozy during the cool winter months. The primary bedroom has a private bath with a walk-in shower and jacuzzi tub. The three guest bedrooms share a full bath with a shower/tub combo. Give us a call today to schedule a private showing!

23. 2025-08-27
    listed $149,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (836 chars)

    COUNTRY LIVING! Located in the Porter Springs Community, this home offers the perfect place for quiet country living and is just a short drive to town. With four bedrooms and two full baths, you’ll have plenty of room for the family. Situated on almost a full acre of land, there is space to keep your pets and livestock – there is fenced backyard and horse pen. Upon entering the home, you’ll appreciate the wheelchair accessible ramps leading from the covered carport. Inside of the home is an open concept living room and kitchen with built-in cabinetry and a gas fireplace to keep cozy during the cool winter months. The primary bedroom has a private bath with a walk-in shower and jacuzzi tub. The three guest bedrooms share a full bath with a shower/tub combo. Give us a call today to schedule a private showing!

24. 2024-12-31
    historical
25. 2024-08-28
    listed $155,000 Active
26. 2018-04-14
    historical
27. 2018-04-06
    historical
28. 2017-10-20
    listed $79,900
29. 2017-10-20
    listed $79,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,039 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,470 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,431/yr (+$119/mo · 137.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,621
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$1,039
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,330
• − Management: −$1,330
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $758
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$182
• After-tax cash flow: $2,739/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crockett ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815720
• Math proficiency: 22% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $26,917
• Composite: 19.83/100
• National rank: #8699
• State rank: #736 of 826 in TX

Livability — Crockett

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1005
• US rank: #17855

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,805

Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,269 people
• By 2030: 20,568 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 19,255 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 17,980 · -15.5%
• By 2075: 15,214 · -28.5%
• By 2100: 11,720 · -44.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.4) · D 22.1% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -37.3pp · 2024: -55.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.4 2020: R+50.3 2016: R+50.9 2012: R+44.3 2008: R+37.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -28.03%
• Current HPI: 149.4937
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+69.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Relisted — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $135,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $135,000 GTAR
• 2026-05-06 Listed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-27 Delisted — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2025-08-27 Listed $149,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2025-08-27 Listed $149,000 GTAR
• 2025-08-27 Listed $149,000 HARMLS
• 2024-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-08-28 Listed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2018-04-14 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2018-04-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2017-10-20 Listed $79,900 HARMLS
• 2017-10-20 Listed $79,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+31.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,039 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.