46 Ptolemy Ct

Turnersville, NJ 08080

$295,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,508 sqft · Built 1986 · Townhouse · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,587/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax + insurance: −$529
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
• Net cashflow: $-32/mo
• Annual: $-389/yr
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.47%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.88%
• Cash to close: $82,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $295k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-389/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $289k (1.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (12.3% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $259k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#246 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Washington Township School District (suburban): math 21% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #257 of 472 in NJ (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,047 units permitted in Gloucester County in 2024 (183 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gloucester County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $235k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.0% in Turnersville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.