9 John St

Bethpage, NY 11714

$639,000D

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,663 sqft · Built 1963 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,640/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,351
• Tax + insurance: −$1,101
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$974
• Net cashflow: $-787/mo
• Annual: $-9,439/yr
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.28%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $178,920

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $639k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-787 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $500k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $464k (27.4% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $464k (27.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#131 in NY, #2,116 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Bethpage Union Free School District (suburban): math 79% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #45 of 590 in NY (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Central Boulevard Elementary School (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B, #675 of 2,108 statewide, top 35%, 533 students, 0% FRL); John F Kennedy Middle School (math 72% / reading 81%, grade A, #47 of 729 statewide, top 7%, 717 students, 24% FRL); Bethpage Senior High School (math 98% / reading 98%, grade A+, #13 of 1,100 statewide, top 2%, 932 students, 27% FRL).
• Market conditions: 113 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 824 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (153 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.2% in Bethpage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.