457 Ryan Rd

Ezel, KY 40387

$68,000B-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 640 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Pending · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $799/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$357
• Tax + insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$168
• Net cashflow: $161/mo
• Annual: $1,936/yr
• Cap rate: 9.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.17%
• DSCR: 1.45
• 1% rule: 1.18%
• Cash to close: $19,040

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $68k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $161 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($799 rent vs $68k).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $67k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $470 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#375 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D+, schools D, amenities F.
• Morgan County (rural): math 14% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #150 of 165 in KY (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Morgan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Morgan County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 3.4% in Ezel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: exterior siding — Significant peeling and wear
• Major: interior paint — Worn and peeling
• Major: bathroom fixtures — Outdated and in poor condition