1144 Grassy Branch Rd

Hyden, KY 40827

$11,900C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,170 sqft · Built 2003 · Manufactured · Pending · 210 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,229/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$62
• Tax + insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $888/mo
• Annual: $10,659/yr
• Cap rate: 95.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 319.91%
• DSCR: 15.23
• 1% rule: 10.32%
• Cash to close: $3,332

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $12k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $888 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $12k).
• It's been on market 210 days — a 12% lower offer ($10k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $10k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $362 of equity ($82 loan paydown + $280 appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#156 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Leslie County (rural): math 35% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #36 of 165 in KY (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Stinnett Elementary School (math 39% / reading 46%, grade F, #169 of 676 statewide, top 26%, 318 students, 65% FRL); Leslie County High School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 472 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP.
• Leslie County population projected at -35% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $3k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 210 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.