1144 Grassy Branch Rd · Hyden, KY 40827

$11,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,170 sqft · Manufactured · 210 Days on market

Built 2003 5.87 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

PROPERTY IS NOW AT AUCTION. SEE PRIVATE REMARKS OR CALL LISTING AGENT!!! Manufactured home located in Leslie county on over 5 acres. Don't let this one pass by!!!

Key facts

• Manufactured home
• Over 5 acres
• 5.87 acre lot

Tags

• MANUFACTURED HOME
• OVER 5 ACRES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $12k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $888 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $12k).
• Recommended offer: $10k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#156 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Leslie County (rural): math 35% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #36 of 165 in KY (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Stinnett Elementary School (math 39% / reading 46%, grade F, #169 of 676 statewide, top 26%, 318 students, 65% FRL); Leslie County High School (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 472 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $362 of equity ($82 loan paydown + $280 appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Leslie County population projected at -35% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $3k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 210 days — a 12% lower offer ($10k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $10,472 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 210 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 10.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 95.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 319.91%
• DSCR: 15.23
• GRM: 0.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.35% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 18.29×
• Total profit: $57,625
• Equity at exit: $4,923

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 38.93×
• Total profit: $126,393
• Equity at exit: $7,269

Cash invested: $3,332 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40827

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 0.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,229 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$62
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$15 /mo · $178/yr
• Insurance: −$5
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $888

Break-even live

Break-even rent $104

Max offer price $11,900

Occupancy floor 23%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $2,975
• Closing costs: $357
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-03-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-20
   price $11,900
3. 2026-01-25
   price $14,900
4. 2025-12-22
   price $19,900
5. 2025-11-26
   price $24,900
6. 2025-10-23
   price $34,900
7. 2025-09-21
   price $44,900
8. 2025-08-20
   listed $49,900 Active
9. 2002-10-01
   soldstatus $94,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,742
• − Mortgage interest: −$667
• − Property taxes: −$178
• − Insurance: −$60
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,179
• − Management: −$1,179
• − Depreciation: −$346
• Taxable income: $11,133
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,672
• After-tax cash flow: $7,988/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Leslie County
• NCES district ID: 2103330
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $29,367
• Composite: 32.9/100
• National rank: #5604
• State rank: #36 of 165 in KY

Livability — Hyden

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #156
• US rank: #7902

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 993

Population outlook (Leslie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,439 people
• By 2030: 8,711 · -7.7%
• By 2040: 7,328 · -22.4%
• By 2050: 6,134 · -35.0%
• By 2075: 4,231 · -55.2%
• By 2100: 3,178 · -66.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Leslie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+80.9) · D 8.8% · R 89.7% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.1pp toward R · 2008: -63.9pp · 2024: -80.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+80.9 2020: R+80.5 2016: R+80.6 2012: R+80.9 2008: R+63.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.35%
• Current HPI: 145.0937
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-87.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $11,900 ImagineMLS
• 2026-01-25 Price Changed $14,900 ImagineMLS
• 2025-12-22 Price Changed $19,900 ImagineMLS
• 2025-11-26 Price Changed $24,900 ImagineMLS
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $34,900 ImagineMLS
• 2025-09-21 Price Changed $44,900 ImagineMLS
• 2025-08-20 Listed $49,900 ImagineMLS
• 2002-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $94,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,190 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.