155 Rosebud

San Antonio, TX 78221

$168,500D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,428 sqft · Built 2021 · SingleFamily · Active · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,526/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$884
• Tax + insurance: −$406
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $-84/mo
• Annual: $-1,009/yr
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.14%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $47,180

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $168k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-84 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (9.4% below list).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $153k (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Harlandale ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #748 of 826 in TX (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: V M Adams El (math 10% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,974 of 4,322 statewide, top 92%, 591 students, 95% FRL); Harlandale Middle (math 20% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 770 students, 90% FRL); Harlandale H S (math 17% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 1,664 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 66% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-7.2%/yr); 389 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.