44270 Arya Ct

Anza, CA 92539

$340,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,950 sqft · Built 1991 · Manufactured · Active · 185 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,947/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,783
• Tax + insurance: −$387
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-632/mo
• Annual: $-7,588/yr
• Cap rate: 4.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.97%
• DSCR: 0.65
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $95,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $340k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-632 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (32.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (42.7% below list).
• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $195k (42.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#1,301 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hemet Unified (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #360 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $216k; list at $340k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.