44270 Arya Ct · Anza, CA 92539

$340,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,950 sqft · Manufactured · 185 Days on market

Built 1991 2.53 ac lot $174/sqft · at area comps Est $350k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

OWNER WILLING TO FINANCE SALE!!!! VERY spacious home with plenty of country charm and lots of character located in the Terwilliger area of Anza. This home is approximately 1950 square feet with 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, living room, formal dining room, and huge family room or could be used as master bedroom with retreat. The large square footage and big rooms leaves room for floor-plan changes if buyer chooses to remodel. 1 wood burning stove. There are also two Mini-split units. Other features include real hardwood flooring, some windows have been upgraded with double pane windows and built in blinds. There is an enormous full covered porch off the front of the home. The lot is 2.53 acres- all usable and perfect for horses. The lot is fully fenced with field fencing and double strand barb wire with gated entry. Other exterior features include large dutch barn- shed/workshop with animal pen, additional shed, 2 car carport, 40 foot shipping container, and mature trees for shade. The home sits at the end of a cul-de-sac in a private location with vacant lots on 3 sides. Perfect home for a family, weekend retreat or rental property! Come take a look today! OWNER WILLING TO FINANCE SALE!!!! * * * * Be sure to check out the Virtual Tour link * * * *

Key facts

• Double pane windows
• Terwilliger area
• Wood burning stove

Tags

• TERWILLIGER AREA
• WOOD BURNING STOVE
• MINI-SPLIT UNITS
• REAL HARDWOOD FLOORING
• DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS
• ENORMOUS FULL COVERED PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-632 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (32.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (42.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (42.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#1,301 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A-, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Hemet Unified (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #360 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $216k; list at $340k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,686 (42.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.97%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 14.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $350,000
• List price: $340,000
• Delta: -2.86%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $144,817
• Equity at exit: $306,299

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.81×
• Total profit: $457,974
• Equity at exit: $660,545

Cash invested: $95,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92539

• Home prices YoY: 16.5%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 14.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,947 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,783
• Tax from tax record: −$246 /mo · $2,949/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-632

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,747

Max offer price $228,291

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,000
• Closing costs: $10,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $340,000 Active 185 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $340,000 Active 184 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $340,000 Active 183 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $340,000 Active 182 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $340,000 Active 180 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $340,000 Active 176 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $340,000 Active 175 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $340,000 Active 174 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $340,000 Active 171 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $340,000 Active 170 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $340,000 Active 169 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $340,000 Active 168 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $340,000 Active 167 DOM
14. 2026-04-29
    price $340,000 1274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1274 chars)

    OWNER WILLING TO FINANCE SALE!!!! VERY spacious home with plenty of country charm and lots of character located in the Terwilliger area of Anza. This home is approximately 1950 square feet with 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, living room, formal dining room, and huge family room or could be used as master bedroom with retreat. The large square footage and big rooms leaves room for floor-plan changes if buyer chooses to remodel. 1 wood burning stove. There are also two Mini-split units. Other features include real hardwood flooring, some windows have been upgraded with double pane windows and built in blinds. There is an enormous full covered porch off the front of the home. The lot is 2.53 acres- all usable and perfect for horses. The lot is fully fenced with field fencing and double strand barb wire with gated entry. Other exterior features include large dutch barn- shed/workshop with animal pen, additional shed, 2 car carport, 40 foot shipping container, and mature trees for shade. The home sits at the end of a cul-de-sac in a private location with vacant lots on 3 sides. Perfect home for a family, weekend retreat or rental property! Come take a look today! OWNER WILLING TO FINANCE SALE!!!! * * * * Be sure to check out the Virtual Tour link * * * *

15. 2025-12-15
    listed $375,000 Active 1274-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1274 chars)

    OWNER WILLING TO FINANCE SALE!!!! VERY spacious home with plenty of country charm and lots of character located in the Terwilliger area of Anza. This home is approximately 1950 square feet with 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, living room, formal dining room, and huge family room or could be used as master bedroom with retreat. The large square footage and big rooms leaves room for floor-plan changes if buyer chooses to remodel. 1 wood burning stove. There are also two Mini-split units. Other features include real hardwood flooring, some windows have been upgraded with double pane windows and built in blinds. There is an enormous full covered porch off the front of the home. The lot is 2.53 acres- all usable and perfect for horses. The lot is fully fenced with field fencing and double strand barb wire with gated entry. Other exterior features include large dutch barn- shed/workshop with animal pen, additional shed, 2 car carport, 40 foot shipping container, and mature trees for shade. The home sits at the end of a cul-de-sac in a private location with vacant lots on 3 sides. Perfect home for a family, weekend retreat or rental property! Come take a look today! OWNER WILLING TO FINANCE SALE!!!! * * * * Be sure to check out the Virtual Tour link * * * *

16. 2018-08-06
    soldstatus $216,000 Closed Sale 1245-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1245 chars)

    VERY spacious home with plenty of country charm and lots of character located in the Terwilliger area of Anza. This home is approximately 1950 square feet with 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, living room, formal dining room, and huge family room or could be used as master bedroom with retreat. The large square footage and big rooms leaves room for floor-plan changes if buyer chooses to remodel. 2 wood burning stoves, 2 evaporate coolers and 2 wall heaters will keep you very comfortable year round! Other features include real hardwood flooring, some windows have been upgraded with double pane windows and built in blinds. There is an enormous full covered porch off the front of the home. The lot is 2.53 acres- all usable and perfect for horses. The lot is fully fenced with field fencing and double strand barb wire with gated entry. Other exterior features include large dutch barn- shed/workshop with electric with animal pen, chicken coop, additional shed, detached laundry room, 2 car carport, 40 foot shipping container, fire pit and mature trees for shade. The home sits at the end of a cul-de-sac in a private location with vacant lots on 3 sides. Perfect home for a family, weekend retreat or rental property! Come take a look today!

17. 2018-08-06
    soldstatus $216,000

    Show marketing remark (1245 chars)

    VERY spacious home with plenty of country charm and lots of character located in the Terwilliger area of Anza. This home is approximately 1950 square feet with 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, living room, formal dining room, and huge family room or could be used as master bedroom with retreat. The large square footage and big rooms leaves room for floor-plan changes if buyer chooses to remodel. 2 wood burning stoves, 2 evaporate coolers and 2 wall heaters will keep you very comfortable year round! Other features include real hardwood flooring, some windows have been upgraded with double pane windows and built in blinds. There is an enormous full covered porch off the front of the home. The lot is 2.53 acres- all usable and perfect for horses. The lot is fully fenced with field fencing and double strand barb wire with gated entry. Other exterior features include large dutch barn- shed/workshop with electric with animal pen, chicken coop, additional shed, detached laundry room, 2 car carport, 40 foot shipping container, fire pit and mature trees for shade. The home sits at the end of a cul-de-sac in a private location with vacant lots on 3 sides. Perfect home for a family, weekend retreat or rental property! Come take a look today!

18. 2018-06-30
    historical Active Under Contract 1245-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1245 chars)

    VERY spacious home with plenty of country charm and lots of character located in the Terwilliger area of Anza. This home is approximately 1950 square feet with 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, living room, formal dining room, and huge family room or could be used as master bedroom with retreat. The large square footage and big rooms leaves room for floor-plan changes if buyer chooses to remodel. 2 wood burning stoves, 2 evaporate coolers and 2 wall heaters will keep you very comfortable year round! Other features include real hardwood flooring, some windows have been upgraded with double pane windows and built in blinds. There is an enormous full covered porch off the front of the home. The lot is 2.53 acres- all usable and perfect for horses. The lot is fully fenced with field fencing and double strand barb wire with gated entry. Other exterior features include large dutch barn- shed/workshop with electric with animal pen, chicken coop, additional shed, detached laundry room, 2 car carport, 40 foot shipping container, fire pit and mature trees for shade. The home sits at the end of a cul-de-sac in a private location with vacant lots on 3 sides. Perfect home for a family, weekend retreat or rental property! Come take a look today!

19. 2018-06-13
    price $229,900 1245-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1245 chars)

    VERY spacious home with plenty of country charm and lots of character located in the Terwilliger area of Anza. This home is approximately 1950 square feet with 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, living room, formal dining room, and huge family room or could be used as master bedroom with retreat. The large square footage and big rooms leaves room for floor-plan changes if buyer chooses to remodel. 2 wood burning stoves, 2 evaporate coolers and 2 wall heaters will keep you very comfortable year round! Other features include real hardwood flooring, some windows have been upgraded with double pane windows and built in blinds. There is an enormous full covered porch off the front of the home. The lot is 2.53 acres- all usable and perfect for horses. The lot is fully fenced with field fencing and double strand barb wire with gated entry. Other exterior features include large dutch barn- shed/workshop with electric with animal pen, chicken coop, additional shed, detached laundry room, 2 car carport, 40 foot shipping container, fire pit and mature trees for shade. The home sits at the end of a cul-de-sac in a private location with vacant lots on 3 sides. Perfect home for a family, weekend retreat or rental property! Come take a look today!

20. 2018-05-01
    listed $237,000 Active 1245-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1245 chars)

    VERY spacious home with plenty of country charm and lots of character located in the Terwilliger area of Anza. This home is approximately 1950 square feet with 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, living room, formal dining room, and huge family room or could be used as master bedroom with retreat. The large square footage and big rooms leaves room for floor-plan changes if buyer chooses to remodel. 2 wood burning stoves, 2 evaporate coolers and 2 wall heaters will keep you very comfortable year round! Other features include real hardwood flooring, some windows have been upgraded with double pane windows and built in blinds. There is an enormous full covered porch off the front of the home. The lot is 2.53 acres- all usable and perfect for horses. The lot is fully fenced with field fencing and double strand barb wire with gated entry. Other exterior features include large dutch barn- shed/workshop with electric with animal pen, chicken coop, additional shed, detached laundry room, 2 car carport, 40 foot shipping container, fire pit and mature trees for shade. The home sits at the end of a cul-de-sac in a private location with vacant lots on 3 sides. Perfect home for a family, weekend retreat or rental property! Come take a look today!

21. 2013-06-25
    soldstatus $64,000
22. 1989-09-26
    soldstatus $33,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,949 · $246/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,949 · $246/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥94°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,362
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,045
• − Property taxes: −$2,949
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,869
• − Management: −$1,869
• − Depreciation: −$9,891
• Taxable loss: −$13,960
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,350
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,238/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hemet Unified
• NCES district ID: 0616920
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,962
• Composite: 25.16/100
• National rank: #7517
• State rank: #360 of 517 in CA

Livability — Anza

• Score: 45/100
• State rank: #1301
• US rank: #26600

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,480

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 16% Asian 8% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 26% Korean 4% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.58%
• Current HPI: 329.4083
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+930.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $340,000 CRMLS
• 2025-12-15 Listed $375,000 CRMLS
• 2018-08-06 Sold (Public Records) $216,000 Public Records
• 2018-08-06 Sold (MLS) $216,000 CRMLS
• 2018-06-30 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2018-06-13 Price Changed $229,900 CRMLS
• 2018-05-01 Listed $237,000 CRMLS
• 2013-06-25 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records
• 1989-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,949 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.