269 Vintage Bay Dr Unit C11

Marco Island, FL 34145

$485,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,637 sqft · Built 2001 · Condo · Active · 200 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,381/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,543
• Tax + insurance: −$1,235
• HOA: −$1,177
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$920
• Net cashflow: $-1,494/mo
• Annual: $-17,930/yr
• Cap rate: 3.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.43%
• DSCR: 0.58
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $135,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $485k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (44.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $438k (9.7% below list).
• It's been on market 200 days — a 12% lower offer ($427k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $269k (44.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#404 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tommie Barfield Elementary School (math 84% / reading 75%, grade A, #116 of 2,144 statewide, top 6%, 464 students, 30% FRL); Manatee Middle School (math 61% / reading 43%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 749 students, 64% FRL); Lely High School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #304 of 667 statewide, top 47%, 1,504 students, 54% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 27% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 897 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 51d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 1.5% in Marco Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,381/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($102k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 200 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?