269 Vintage Bay Dr Unit C11 · Marco Island, FL 34145

$499,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,637 sqft · Condo · 154 Days on market

Built 2001 Good condition Garage $305/sqft · 16% below area Est $594k · 16% under $1177/mo HOA · 27% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The one that has tile throughout. Island living with views you actually want. This two-bedroom, two-bath, third-floor unit checks all the right boxes, without the usual compromises. Skip the carpet and keep it clean with hard-surface flooring throughout, ideal for easy maintenance and coastal living. Elevator access, no stairs and a covered, assigned parking spot in the under-building garage. The real star here? Peaceful views of native trees and Barfield Bay that bring in natural light and a daily dose of why don't I do this more often? Whether you're sipping coffee in the morning or unwinding to the sunset views in the evening, this is the kind of backdrop that never gets old. In a well-managed, well-regarded condominium complex, you'll enjoy the confidence of solid upkeep and a community that actually runs the way it should. The community features a gorgeous pool, clubhouse and bayside gazebo with nature trail. Simple. Clean. Scenic. Exactly what Marco Island life should be.

Key facts

• Gorgeous pool
• Peaceful views
• Club house

Tags

• HARD-SURFACE FLOORING
• ELEVATOR ACCESS
• COVERED ASSIGNED PARKING
• PEACEFUL VIEWS
• GORGEOUS POOL
• CLUB HOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $499k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $274k (45.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $443k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $274k (45.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 1.6% in Marco Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#404 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tommie Barfield Elementary School (math 84% / reading 75%, grade A, #116 of 2,144 statewide, top 6%, 464 students, 30% FRL); Manatee Middle School (math 61% / reading 43%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 749 students, 64% FRL); Lely High School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #304 of 667 statewide, top 47%, 1,504 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 804 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 119d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,428/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($102k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($439k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 27% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $274,108 (45.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.68%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $593,855
• List price: $499,000
• Delta: -15.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
133 Vintage Bay Dr #26	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,637 (0%)	4mo	$525,000	$321	92
2049 San Marco Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,669 (+2%)	1mo	$730,000	$437	70
2060 Sheffield Ave	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,458 (-11%)	0mo	$762,500	$523	59
2153 San Marco Rd Unit 2-203	0.17mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,289 (-21%)	4mo	$170,000	$132	57
1781 Dogwood Dr	1.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,585 (-3%)	2mo	$820,000	$517	53
111 S Bahama Ave	1.38mi	2/2.5	1,741 (+6%)	0mo	$900,000	$517	52
72 N Barfield Dr	1.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,727 (+6%)	3mo	$1,600,000	$926	48
84 Gulfport Ct	1.46mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,551 (-5%)	2mo	$1,230,000	$793	46
1813 N Bahama Ave	1.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,792 (+10%)	1mo	$1,050,000	$586	44
143 Leeward Ct	1.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,030 (+24%)	4mo	$1,710,000	$842	32
1782 Hummingbird Ct	1.47mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,897 (+16%)	6mo	$1,665,000	$878	28
1871 Dogwood Dr	1.02mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,977 (+21%)	6mo	$1,600,000	$809	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-162,224
• Equity at exit: $74,403

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.37×
• Total profit: $-191,239
• Equity at exit: $43,144

Cash invested: $139,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 3 active
• Median asking: $529,900 ($321/sqft)
• Median days on market: 44 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +13.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34145

• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 804
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,428 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$624 /mo · $7,485/yr
• Insurance: −$208
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$1,177
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$930
• Net cashflow: $-1,554

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,395

Max offer price $274,108

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,209	-5% $-1,382	+0% $-1,554	+5% $-1,727	+10% $-1,899
Rent	-10% $-1,904	-5% $-1,729	+0% $-1,554	+5% $-1,379	+10% $-1,204
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,303	-0.5pp $-1,427	base $-1,554	+0.5pp $-1,683	+1.0pp $-1,815

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $124,750
• Closing costs: $14,970
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
269 Vintage Bay Dr Unit 3C Marco Island, FL	3.0	2.0	1773	$3,000	$1.69	119d	1	0.02mi
2133 San Marco Rd Unit 6-203 Marco Island, FL	2.0	2.5	1289	$5,000	$3.88	6d	1	0.14mi
1849 N Bahama Ave Marco Island, FL	3.0	3.0	2115	$9,450	$4.47	119d	1	1.15mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unit located in the Vintage Bay condominium on Marco IslandHas waterfront (bay)
• HOA & community: Quarterly condo feeCommunity is gatedCommunity amenities include clubhouse, community pool, bike storage, extra storage, fishing pier, and trash chuteProfessional managementMaintenance covers cable, insurance, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, legal/accounting, manager, exterior pest control, recreation facilities, repairs, reserves, sewer, trash removal, and waterTotal annual recurring fees reported

Exterior

• Parking: 1 assigned deeded parking spaceAttached garage (1-car)Under-building open parkingPaved driveway and guest parking
• Security: Gated communityEntry keypad
• Utilities: Central waterCentral sewerCable available
• Home design: Residential mid-rise (4-7 stories)Zero lot lineRear exposure facing west
• Construction: Concrete block constructionBuilt in 2001Built-up or flat roof
• Exterior features: Automatic sprinkler systemImpact resistant windowsElectric shuttersStucco exteriorBay view, landscaped area, mangroves, and pool/club view

Interior

• Kitchen: IslandDishwasherDisposalMicrowaveRangeRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (split bedroom floor plan)
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsMaster bath with dual sinks and separate tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heatCentral electric air conditioningCeiling fans
• Interior features: Cable prewireFoyerSmoke detectorsWalk-in closetScreened lanai/porchCommon elevatorFurnished
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

HOA detail $1,177/mo · $14,124/yr condo

• Likely covers: poolparking
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $499,000 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $499,000 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $499,000 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $499,000 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $499,000 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $499,000 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $499,000 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $499,000 Active 146 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $499,000 Active 145 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $499,000 Active 144 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $499,000 Active 143 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $499,000 Active 142 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $499,000 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $499,000 Active 135 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $499,000 Active 134 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $499,000 Active 131 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $499,000 Active 130 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $499,000 Active 129 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $499,000 Active 128 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $499,000 Active 127 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $499,000 Active 126 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $499,000 Active 125 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $499,000 Active 124 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $499,000 Active 123 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $499,000 Active 122 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $499,000 Active 121 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $499,000 Active 120 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $499,000 Active 119 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $499,000 Active 118 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $499,000 Active 116 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $499,000 Active 115 DOM
32. 2026-08-13
    days on market $499,000 Active 113 DOM
33. 2026-08-12
    days on market $499,000 Active 112 DOM
34. 2026-08-11
    days on market $499,000 Active 111 DOM
35. 2026-08-10
    days on market $499,000 Active 110 DOM
36. 2026-08-09
    days on market $499,000 Active 109 DOM
37. 2026-08-08
    days on market $499,000 Active 108 DOM
38. 2026-08-07
    days on market $499,000 Active 107 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $499,000 Active 106 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $499,000 Active 105 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $499,000 Active 104 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $499,000 Active 103 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $499,000 Active 100 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $499,000 Active 99 DOM
45. 2026-07-29
    days on market $499,000 Active 98 DOM
46. 2026-07-27
    days on market $499,000 Active 96 DOM
47. 2026-07-25
    days on market $499,000 Active 94 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $499,000 Active 93 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $499,000 Active 92 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $499,000 Active 91 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,132
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,952
• − Property taxes: −$7,485
• − Insurance: −$7,614
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,251
• − Management: −$4,251
• − HOA: −$14,124
• − Depreciation: −$14,516
• Taxable loss: −$27,060
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,494
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,156/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,185–$24,555 screening

This well-maintained and updated condo offers a great location with beautiful views and is ready for a new owner.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the interior walls — Fresh paint can make the space feel new and improve curb appeal. ↑
• Both Replace the tile floors — New tile floors can improve the look and feel of the living areas. ↑
• Both Upgrade the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, making the space more attractive to buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 57/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Tommie Barfield Elementary School A FL #116/2,144 Nat'l #1,230/41,679 Middle Manatee Middle School C+ FL #217/571 Nat'l #3,033/14,009 High Lely High School F FL #304/667 Nat'l #8,293/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Marco Island

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #404
• US rank: #7149

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marco Island, FL
• County: Collier County · 420,858 people
• City population: 16,205
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,205
• Household income: $101,523
• Rent vs Own: 10.6% rent · 89.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -374.55%
• Current HPI: 284.7538
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.59%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unit located in the Vintage Bay condominium on Marco IslandHas waterfront (bay)
• HOA & community: Quarterly condo feeCommunity is gatedCommunity amenities include clubhouse, community pool, bike storage, extra storage, fishing pier, and trash chuteProfessional managementMaintenance covers cable, insurance, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, legal/accounting, manager, exterior pest control, recreation facilities, repairs, reserves, sewer, trash removal, and waterTotal annual recurring fees reported

Exterior

• Parking: 1 assigned deeded parking spaceAttached garage (1-car)Under-building open parkingPaved driveway and guest parking
• Security: Gated communityEntry keypad
• Utilities: Central waterCentral sewerCable available
• Home design: Residential mid-rise (4-7 stories)Zero lot lineRear exposure facing west
• Construction: Concrete block constructionBuilt in 2001Built-up or flat roof
• Exterior features: Automatic sprinkler systemImpact resistant windowsElectric shuttersStucco exteriorBay view, landscaped area, mangroves, and pool/club view

Interior

• Kitchen: IslandDishwasherDisposalMicrowaveRangeRefrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (split bedroom floor plan)
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsMaster bath with dual sinks and separate tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heatCentral electric air conditioningCeiling fans
• Interior features: Cable prewireFoyerSmoke detectorsWalk-in closetScreened lanai/porchCommon elevatorFurnished
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $499,000 MIML
• 2026-04-22 Listed $499,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $499 MIML